Monday, September 15, 2008

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Overview

Polling in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia shows marginal gains for McCain in three states and for Obama in two. McCain has a slight advantage in three of the five states and the other two are tied. However, in only one state does the gap between McCain and Obama exceed three percentage points in polls with a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error.

The overriding message from these results is that the race remains very close with just over seven weeks to go.

The biggest change is found in Colorado where it’s now McCain 48% and Obama 46%. A week ago, Obama had a three-point edge in this western state. The current results are similar to the Rasmussen Reports Colorado polling conducted in August, just before the Democratic convention was held in Denver.

McCain now holds a 49% to 44% advantage in Florida. Last week the candidates were tied at 48% in the Sunshine State.

In Ohio, McCain continues to have the advantage, 48% to 45%. That’s closer than the results from last week which showed McCain with a 51% to 44% advantage.

Virginia and Pennsylvania are both tied. Last week McCain was up by two in Virginia and Obama was up two in Pennsylvania.

These state results remain consistent with national polling trends as McCain currently holds a slight advantage in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In fact, current national polling shows a race nearly identical to the final results for Election 2004. Not surprisingly, therefore, the Electoral College map is shaping up to look a lot like the map from four years ago.

Of the five states in the Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling, three are very similar to their results from four years ago, Virginia is looking better for the Democrats at the moment, and Pennsylvania is looking better for the Republicans.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· Roughly one-in-five voters say they could still change their mind before voting. This large number of potentially persuadable voters places enormous importance on the debates which begin a week from Friday.

· Ohio voters are less certain of their vote than those in other states. Thirty percent (30%) in the Buckeye State say they could change their mind.

· In all five states, McCain continues to be viewed more favorably—and trusted more-- than Obama.

· The number who would not be comfortable with Obama as President is at 40% or 41% in every state.

· The number not comfortable with a President McCain ranges from 33% to 36%. This is consistent with national polling data released today showing that more voters believe McCain is prepared to be President.

· Voters are generally more comfortable with the idea of a President Biden than a President Obama. The number uncomfortable with the idea of Biden in the Oval Office ranges from 26% to 33%.

· Voters are less comfortable with idea of a President Palin than a President Biden.

· In fact, Palin’s numbers are closer to Obama’s than Biden’s. The number uncomfortable with a President Palin ranges from 38% to 45% in the five states polled this week.

· The Republican support for McCain is quite stable. The modest changes from week-to-week can generally be found in changes among Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

· Obama has the edge among unaffiliated voters in two states, McCain in two, and they are even in one. Nationally, McCain has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.

· In Pennsylvania, there was a three point decline in the number of undecideds along with a two point increase in support for McCain.

· In Ohio, there was a three point increase in the number of undecideds along with a three point decline in support for McCain.

· In Colorado, Nader’s support when up three percentage points while Obama’s went down three.

· Economic issues are the top issue in all five states with national security matters a distant second.

Things to Look For

John McCain’s convention bounce has already lasted longer than Obama’s. Will it hold up until the debates or will support for the GOP standard bearer begin to recede in the battleground states?

Also, will Virginia and Pennsylvania continue to tilt against their traditional partisan leanings?

More than anything else, however, the data highlights the importance of the debates. The most important thing to look for will be public reaction to those possibly decisive events.

Selected Data

NOTE: Numbers in parentheses indicate results from September 7 surveys.

NOTE: McKinney not on ballot in Pennsylvania.

Background

Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 14, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.