Monday, October 20, 2008

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Overview

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio shows a slightly improved situation for John McCain compared to a week ago. However, the underlying dynamic of the race still favors Barack Obama.

The biggest change is found in Florida where it’s now essentially even with McCain at 49% and Obama at 48%. A week ago, Obama was up by five points and the week before he held a seven-point lead. The current polling shows McCain’s support at its highest level since mid-September.

McCain also moved slightly ahead again in Ohio with a 49% to 47% advantage over Obama. A week ago, those numbers were reversed and Obama had the two-point advantage. As in Florida, the current poll shows McCain at his highest level of support since mid-September.

But, it’s hard to classify Ohio as anything but a pure toss-up—four straight weekly polls have found McCain and Obama within two points of each other or closer. During that time, neither man has topped 49% support or fallen below 47%. Average the four polls together and the candidates are within half-a-point of each other.

North Carolina has drifted slightly in the opposite direction. Obama now leads in the Tar Heel State 51% to 48%. A week ago, the candidates were tied in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1976.

Missouri has also drifted a bit towards Obama. The Democrat now leads in the Show-Me State 49% to 44%. Both last week and the week before, Obama held a narrower advantage, 50% to 47%. The survey was conducted the day after Obama attracted 100,000 people to a rally in St. Louis and 75,000 to a rally in Kansas City.

There’s little change in Colorado where Obama leads by five, 51% to 46%. The previous Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted two weeks ago and found Obama up by six.

Overall, these results are a bit better for McCain only in that he has overcome deficits to draw even in Ohio and Florida. However, all five of the Battleground States were carried by George W. Bush four years ago and are considered must-win states for McCain.

The results are also consistent with national polling showing that the race might have tightened just a bit over the past week. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has generally shown Obama up by four or five points nationally during the past week. Prior to that, Obama had consistently enjoyed a five-to-eight point lead.

Still, despite McCain’s gains in key states and in the national numbers, the overall state of the race continues to favor Obama with just over two weeks left until Election Day.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· Economic issues remain far and away the top priority in all states.

· The best single indicator of a state’s preference for Obama or McCain is the question on which candidate voters’ trust on the economy. Obama is trusted by slightly more voters than McCain on economic issues in four of the five states. In Florida, 47% trust each candidate most on the economy.

· In all five Battleground States polled this week, McCain’s net support is just one to four points better on the ballot question than it is on the trust on economy question.

· On the question of who has the “right experience” to be President, McCain has a solid advantage in all five states.

· The number in each state saying that McCain has the “right experience” ranges from a low of 63% to a high of 68%. The comparable range for Obama is from 40% to 46%. The biggest reason for this gap is that Democrats are divided on whether McCain has the right experience.

· In all states but North Carolina, voters not affiliated with the major political parties are more likely to see McCain as having the “right experience.” In North Carolina, 49% of unaffiliated voters see each man as having the right experience.

· Both candidates are viewed favorably by most voters in all five states.

· In all five states, Obama is seen as more likely to bring about real change. The number who say he is the only candidate who could deliver on change ranges from 40% to 43% in these Battleground States. The number saying McCain is the only candidate who could bring about change ranges from 27% to 29%.

· Between 15% and 18% of voters in each state believe both candidates could bring about real change. Between 9% and 12% in each state believe neither can do so.

· The Battleground State surveys were conducted the day that former Secretary of State Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama. All interviews were conducted after the endorsement was made and it is not clear if there was any impact from the announcement. In national polling, there was little immediate impact from the Powell endorsement.

Things to Look For

At this point in the campaign, Obama appears to be ahead in every state won by John Kerry in 2004. All of the Battleground States voted Republican four years ago.

This means the most significant thing to watch for in the coming week is whether McCain can gain ground and take the lead in these states. To accomplish that, he will have to gain ground as the candidate to trust on the economy.

Trends

Note: Results prior to October 5 are from a Rasmussen Reports poll.

Note: Results prior to October 12 are from Rasmussen Reports polls.

Selected Data

Background

Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on October 19, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. A total of 1,000 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error.

In three of the five states—Florida, Missouri, and Ohio—Rasmussen Reports had conducted similar surveys for Fox News on October 12. In all five states, Rasmussen Reports has conducted similar surveys for Fox News this fall.