Monday, September 08, 2008

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Background

Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.

Timing Issues

All of these state surveys were conducted just days after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. Rasmussen Reports national polling was showing a modest increase in support for John McCain over Barack Obama following that convention. While our polling tends to show a smaller “bounce” for McCain than some other firms, it may take another week to fully measure the lasting impact of the convention.

Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.

It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.

Overview

A collective look at all five states confirms the overall sense that the race for the White House is very competitive and that these five states will be considered key battlegrounds. Four of the five state polls show the candidates within 3 points of each other. The sole exception—Ohio—shows McCain with a 51% to 44% advantage and also remains competitive.

Comparing these results with pre-convention polling shows very little net change despite all the hoopla and hype of the convention season. McCain is doing a bit better in Ohio than before the two conventions while Obama has gained some ground in Colorado. There was virtually no change in the other states.

These state results are quite consistent with the national trends. Overall, Obama consistently led McCain by a point or two in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for most of August. This morning, McCain is up by a single percentage point.

A number of themes emerge from the data that are consistent across all five states:

· McCain is trusted more than Obama in all five states.

· In all five states, McCain is viewed more favorably than Obama.

· Also, in all five states, Sarah Palin draws higher “Very Favorable” ratings than any other candidate.

· In all states except Colorado, McCain enjoys a bigger margin among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats. In Colorado, they are even.

· Economic issues are the top issue in all five states with national security matters a distant second.

· The number who would not be comfortable with Obama as President is higher in every state than the number saying the same about McCain. This is consistent with national polling data showing that McCain voters are more likely than Obama supporters to be primarily voting against the other candidate.

· Obama has the edge among unaffiliated voters in three states, McCain in two. Nationally, unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided.

· Pennsylvania has more undecided voters than any other state—seven percent (7%). Most of these are Democrats or unaffiliated voters.

Things to Look For

The most significant thing to watch for in the coming week will be to see if McCain’s convention bounce expands or recedes.

Additionally, it will be interesting to see if Obama retains an edge in Colorado which might validate the decision to host his convention in Denver.

Finally, will McCain’s higher favorability ratings eventually translate into more votes?

Summary of Results

Selected Data

NOTE: Numbers in parentheses indicate pre-convention Rasmussen Reports polling: August 12 survey for Virginia, August 13 for Colorado, August 18 for Florida and Ohio, August 19 for Pennsylvania.

NOTE: McKinney not on ballot in Pennsylvania.