With the first caucuses and primaries of Election 2008 only weeks away, a new Rasmussen Reports survey of potential general-election bouts shows Senator Barack Obama (D) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) neck-and-neck, with Obama barely ahead 43% to 41%. In the same poll, Obama moderately leads former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson 48% to 41%. (see crosstabs)

Obama has had a single-digit lead over Giuliani in seven out of nine Rasmussen Reports election polls conducted since July (see history). The contest seems to have grown even tighter in recent polling. In late October, Giuliani led by two points but he trailed by two in mid-November.

The Obama-Thompson match-up has been a little more erratic and less competitive. A November 13 election poll showed Obama with a five-point lead over Thompson, similar to his current seven-point advantage.

A separate survey shows Obama tied with Arizona Senator John McCain. But, that survey also shows the Illinois Senator enjoying a nine-point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

In the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, Giuliani continues to lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. But he's struggling in early primary states of New Hampshire and Iowa. While Giuliani hopes dominate the round of February 5 caucuses and primaries, the risk is that an early state winner—perhaps former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney or former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee—will gain enough momentum to rapidly revise expectations.

Meanwhile, Fred Thompson seems less formidable than he was just a month and a half ago. Instead of battling with Giuliani for the top spot in our national tracking poll of the GOP race, he now attracts between 10% and 15% of the vote in national polling. Only 40% of all likely voters currently view Thompson favorably. Thompson's favorable level has fluctuated throughout the year but has often been in the mid-40s. This is the fourth poll in a row in which it has stood at a lukewarm 40%.

Obama is currently viewed favorably by 48% of likely voters, Giuliani by 47%.

Obama has consistently placed second in national polling for the Democratic nomination. However, he is one of three candidates essentially tied for the lead in Iowa. The Senator from Illinois has also pulled to within single digits of frontrunner Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

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