In California’s Democratic Presidential Primary, Barack Obama now holds a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Barack Obama with 45% of the vote while Hillary Clinton earns 44%. Earlier in the week, Clinton had a three-point advantage in what has become an extraordinarily close race.

Five percent (5%) of voters are still undecided, 5% say there is still a good chance they could change their mind, and 19% say they might change their mind. Part of the indecision appears to stem from the fact that Democratic voters generally like both of their remaining candidates.

Obama now leads by ten points among men while Clinton leads by five among women. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the Likely Primary Voters are expected to be women. Clinton leads among senior citizens while Obama has the edge among voters under 65.

Delegates to the Democratic National Convention are awarded on a proportional basis by Congressional District. Regardless of who wins, both candidates are likely to bring home a significant number of delegates.

Nationally, Clinton leads in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and remains the frontrunner for the Democratic Nomination. Obama has gained ground since winning South Carolina and receiving high-profile endorsements from the daughter and brother of martyred President John F. Kennedy. A Rasmussen Reports analysis earlier in the week noted that the numbers still favored Clinton, but sometimes the numbers don’t matter.

Obama leads in Georgia, is close in Arizona and Connecticut, and had improved and in several states including Missouri, Alabama, and Massachusetts (see summary of Super Tuesday polls). Still, while Clinton has lost ground, she started from a very solid position. So, it remains to be seen whether Obama’s surge will be enough to actually take the lead or if he will fall just a little bit short. Whatever the outcome, it is now unlikely that the Democratic nominee will be selected on February 5.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a % chance of winning the Democratic nomination and Obama a % chance. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

A summary of Rasmussen Markets data for Super Tuesday contests is available for both Republicans and Democrats.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.