Wednesday, June 25, 2008

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John McCain’s call for offshore oil drilling may have helped him in Florida, but it’s having the opposite impact in California. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Golden State finds Barack Obama leading McCain 58% to 30%. A month ago, Obama led 52% to 38%.

The survey was conducted on Monday night, the day of McCain’s visit to Santa Barbara, where a 1969 oil spill helped launch the environmental movement. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, is a Republican and a McCain supporter. However, he strongly disagrees with McCain’s position on offshore drilling and has called the California coast an “international treasure” that needs to be protected.

The data indicates that McCain’s energy proposal may have united his opposition. Obama leads 84% to 6% among California Democrats. That’s a vast improvement from a month ago when he attracted just 73% of the votes from his own party. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama now leads by twenty-three points up from a thirteen point lead in May.

McCain currently attracts just 67% of Republicans, down slightly from 72% in the previous poll. McCain last week called for new oil drilling off the nation's coasts, and plans to pay a visit Monday to His position is directly at odds with many Californians and supporter Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

While a solid majority of voters nationwide support McCain’s interest in more offshore drilling, just 46% of California voters agree. Forty-seven percent (47%) disagree and 7% are not sure. On a partisan basis, 67% of California Republicans agree with McCain, 65% of the state’s Democrats disagree, and unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided. These figures present quite a contrast to Florida where Republicans were united behind McCain (including Governor Charlie Crist). Florida Democrats were evenly divided on McCain’s proposal.

Just 47% of California voters believe more drilling will reduce the cost of gas and oil. Fifty percent (50%) disagree.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 43% of California voters, down three from a month ago. Obama is viewed favorably by 63%, up six points. Those figures include a stunning 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama. Only 16% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of California voters say that George W. Bush is doing a poor job as President. Just 26% say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Schwarzenegger’s ratings look wonderful by comparision—33% good or excellent and 28% poor.

Rasmussen Markets data show that Democrats have a % of winning California’s fifty-four Electoral College votes this November. John Kerry won the state by ten percentage points in Election 2004. Four years earlier, Al Gore won an eleven point victory in the state. No Republican has won California since the first President Bush in 1988. With release of this poll, California is shifting from “Likely Democratic” to "Safely Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, the race between McCain and Obama remains competitive in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll.

The poll was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

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