John McCain has a seven point lead over Mitt Romney in California’s Republican Presidential Primary. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of the race shows McCain earning 24% of the vote while Romney attracts 17%. More than ten points behind the leader are Mike Huckabee at 13%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Rudy Giuliani at 11%.

However, as in other states, the voters in California are far from settled. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney’s supporters are certain they will vote for him. That’s a far higher level of commitment than any other candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain’s supporters are that “certain” along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters, and 36% of Giuliani fans.

Eleven percent (11%) of Romney supporters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind. Fifteen percent (15%) of Thompson’s supporters are that likely to switch. The numbers are even higher for other candidates—21% for McCain, 22% for Huckabee, and 22% for Giuliani.

McCain is seen as the most electable Republican, a fact that explains his frontrunner status and the current lack of commitment from his voters. Sixty-six percent (66%) say that he is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe Giuliani would have a chance to win as the Republican nominee.

Fifty-five percent (55%) see Romney as at least somewhat likely to win while just 41% say the same about both Huckabee and Thompson.

McCain, Romney, and Huckabee lead the polls nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. McCain and Huckabee are fighting for the lead in South Carolina while McCain and Giuliani are on top in New Jersey. Four candidates are tied for the lead in Florida.

Among Democrats in California, Hillary Clinton has a five point lead over Barack Obama.

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