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Obama Ties Giuliani 43% to 43%, Leads Romney by Four
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Senator Barack Obama and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are now tied in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, with each drawing 43% of likely voters (see crosstabs). That’s the fourth straight survey finding these candidates within two percentage points of each other. It’s also the fourth straight time that Obama’s support has been measured at 43% when matched against Giuliani (see trends and polling history).

The new survey also shows Obama with just a modest lead of 45% to 41% over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Obama has often held double-digit leads over Romney in our polling—but not since July. He led Romney by just three points in September and by six in mid-November. Obama's advantage then surged to nine points in a November 29 survey, a margin now whittled down to four. The current survey is only the second time out of thirteen match-ups with Obama in which Romney attracts better than 40% support.

Of the three candidates, Senator Obama currently enjoys the highest favorables. He is favorably viewed by 48%, unfavorably by 47%. Giuliani is favorably viewed by 44%, unfavorably by 51%. Romney is at 42% favorable, 48% unfavorable.

Governor Romney has lost ground in early primary states to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. While Romney still enjoys a solid lead in New Hampshire, he trails Huckabee in Iowa and South Carolina, and is virtually tied with him in Michigan.

Mayor Giuliani, trailing in the early primaries, is counting on a strong showing in the February 5 suite of primaries, a.k.a. Super Tuesday. Giuliani has long claimed frontrunner status due to his lead in national polling. However, recently he’s had to share the top spot with Huckabee in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

The Democratic race has also become very competitive. Obama, Senator Hillary Clinton, and former Senator John Edwards all have a real chance to win the closely contested Iowa caucuses. Obama and Clinton are essentially even in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.

The Clinton campaign, feeling the electoral heat, has in recent weeks turned up the rhetorical heat. For example, they have called attention to Obama's allegedly ominous presidential ambitions as a kindergartner; and, more seriously, to how his admissions of drug use when younger might be exploited by Republicans in a general election campaign. That last allegation led to the resignation of a Clinton official in New Hampshire.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 800 Likely Voters
December 10-11, 2007

Barack Obama (D) vs.
Rudy Giuliani (R)

Barack Obama (D)

43%

Rudy Giuliani (R)

43%

Barack Obama (D) vs.
Mitt Romney (R)

Barack Obama (D)

45%

Mitt Romney (R)

41%

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