The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a very slight edge over Illinois Senator Barack Obama, 45% to 43%. The same survey indicates that Obama is just a single point ahead of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, leading him 44% to 43%.

Those figures represent an improvement for both Giuliani and Thompson compared to a mid-October poll of these same match-ups. Polling released last week showed the two Republicans had also gained ground against New York Senator Hillary Clinton.

Obama and Giuliani have been fairly close most of the year. During the first half of 2007, Giuliani consistently had the advantage. Since July, Obama has usually enjoyed at least a narrow edge. In each the last three polls, Obama led Giuliani by five percentage points.

For Thompson, the current survey is the closest he has ever come to Obama in a Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. While the Democrat has outpolled Thompson in thirteen consecutive polls, but most of the time the results have been fairly close. Only twice has Obama dominated Thompson by double digits.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama and Giuliani have never been more than six points apart and only rarely more than three points apart.

From the beginning of the year through July, the three-poll average showed Giuliani’s support in the 45% to 48% range against Obama. From August through the most recent three-poll average, Giuliani’s support has been in the 42% to 44% range. Obama’s numbers have moved in the opposite direction—from 39% to 43% early in the year improving to a range of 44% to 47% since August (see history).

It remains to be seen whether the latest poll marks another turning point in this match-up or if it is merely an aberration.

A look at the three poll averages for the Thompson-Obama match-up shows a much more consistent result. Generally, Obama has a five or six percentage point advantage and that’s where things stand in the most recent three poll average between the two.

A recent Rasmussen Reports analysis noted that Hillary Clinton is the unifying theme of Election 2008. Obama has been trailing Clinton by some twenty points in the Democratic nomination race. Under pressure as the first primaries approach, he and the other Democrats stepped up their criticism of Clinton in the latest Democratic debate.

The Republican contest is wide open by comparison. Giuliani is the leader but there is no clear frontrunner. Mitt Romney has the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire while Fred Thompson is seen as the most conservative candidate in the field.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 48%, unfavorably by 50%—including 31% who view him very unfavorably. That's not quite the level of dislike accorded the former First Lady, viewed very unfavorably by 37%. It surpasses that of both Giuliani and Thompson. At the same time, though, Rasmussen Reports polling indicates that core opposition to all the major candidates has been growing.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 49%, unfavorably by 49% (very unfavorably by 22%).

Thompson is now viewed favorably by 47%, unfavorably by 37%. Seventeen percent (17%) are Not Sure yet of their opinion of him. Those are his best ratings of the campaign season.

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