Tuesday, October 28, 2008

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John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama in Arkansas remains stable, as the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Republican leading 54% to 44%.

The race has changed little from September, when McCain held a nine-point lead. Since tracking of the race began in March, McCain’s leads have ranged from nine to 29 percentage points over Obama in the Natural State.

Arkansas has cast its six Electoral College votes for Republican candidates in five out of the last seven Presidential elections. The only exceptions were when former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton was on the Presidential ballot. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 54% to 45% margin.

McCain’s lead among unaffiliated voters in Arkansas jumped from 25 points in September to 34 points in the latest poll. He also leads 58% to 39% among men. Women are more evenly divided between the candidates (see crosstabs).

McCain is viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 37% of Arkansas voters. Obama’s reviews are 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

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Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of carrying Arkansas this fall. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom. The state is listed as “Likely Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

On the top electoral issue of the economy, voters in Arkansas trust McCain more than Obama by a 52% to 43% margin. Unaffiliated voters trust the Republican nominee more, 55% to 36%.

McCain also has a big edge on national security, 60% to 37%. Unaffiliated also heavily favor the Republican on this issue.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 35% of voters in Arkansas, while 47% give his job performance a poor rating.

Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe continues to earn positive ratings from voters, with 68% rating his job performance as good or excellent and just 8% who rate it as poor.

Today’s other releases show McCain ahead in Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.