As the general election campaign season draws near, just 38% of American voters say they are better off than they were four years ago. Fifty-two percent (52%) say they are not. And that’s one of the more upbeat indicators of the public mood.

A review of Rasmussen Reports polling data finds a nation deeply concerned about the future. Just 19% believe the country is better off than it was four years ago while 78% say it is not. Just 16% believe the country is heading in the right direction.

Economically, consumer confidence is lower today than it was in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. On the day that Mitt Romney stepped out of the race, just 20% of consumers rated the economy as good or excellent. Just 13% believe the economy is getting better while 66% say it is getting worse. Forty-eight percent (48%) believe the economy is in a recession and another 11% believe a recession is coming soon.

At the same time, just 13% believe Congress is doing a good or an excellent job. Only 13% believe that Congress has done anything to help improve life in America over the past year. Most doubt that the legislators are even somewhat likely to try and address the nation’s serious problems in the coming year.

The economy is seen as the top issue for Election 2008 —80% of voters consider it very important. But voters give only lukewarm reviews to the economic stimulus package working its way through Congress at this time. When the year began, expectations for Congress were very low and just 12% believed that the Honorables were Very Likely to take steps that would improve the economy.

Government ethics and corruption is seen as Very Important by 76% of voters.

All of this comes at a time when three of the last four Presidential elections have been decided with the winner earning less than 50% of the popular vote. That hasn’t happened since the late nineteenth century. The last two Presidents came into power with their party in control of Congress but lost it during their tenure. That has never happened before.

Republicans won control of Congress in 1994 with a promise to clean up the institution. They did not. Democrats won control of Congress in 2006 with a promise to end the War in Iraq. They did not.

A generation has gone by without any President winning a sweeping electoral victory and a solid majority of the popular vote. Such confirming victories used to happen with regularity and are needed for the health of the nation’s political system.

This environment is obviously challenging for the party controlling the White House. That challenge was highlighted by new data showing that campaigning in the month of January was very good for the Democratic Party Brand—the number of people considering themselves to be Democrats hit a four-year high.

However, three factors have combined to make McCain somewhat less of an underdog.

First, the Democrats did win control of Congress in 2006. This lets the GOP spread a bit of the blame around.

Second, John McCain’s strange path to the nomination has left him in the best possible position for a general election contest. The more McCain is seen as facing down challenges from the right, the more independent voters will perceive McCain to be politically moderate. That perception is already very strong—45% of voters see the Arizona Senator as politically moderate. Just 31% see him as politically conservative while 8% say he is a liberal. That positioning is closer to the nation’s political center than any other candidate (54% see Hillary Clinton as politically liberal, 47% say the same about Barrack Obama).

Finally, the Democratic stalemate gives McCain a head start. The Republican Dream (and Democratic nightmare) is for the Clitnon-Obama feud to get nastier and last until the convention. If it comes down to a question of whether the delegates from Florida and Michigan are seated, the possibility for chaos increases. But, even in the more likely scenario that one of the two Democratic hopefuls finds a way to pull away and win the race in the next couple of months, McCain will benefit from wrapping up his nomination early.

Given the challenging political environment, McCain will need every advantage he can get.

Rasmussen Markets data shortly after Romney dropped out of the race showed Democrats with a 60% chance of winning in November (current pricing: ( %)]. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.