For most Americans in most years, Thanksgiving represents the beginning of the holiday season. This year, America’s political junkies may remember Thanksgiving as the time when Election 2008 really got started. Voters in key states began to look at the candidates a bit differently and many assumptions about the race can no longer be assumed. Last week, Rasmussen Reports noted that the Republican race “remains as muddled as ever.” Today, just one month before voting starts with the Iowa caucuses, it is even more muddled.

Among those seeking the Republican Presidential nomination, the week following Thanksgiving was highlighted by a debate, an endorsement, and Huck-a-mania. All three shook up the race and raised new doubts about the presumed frontrunners.

Those three highlights made it a very bad week for Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts Governor built his entire campaign strategy around the prospect of handily winning the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary to build momentum for future primaries. For months and months, he was the only candidate to invest in those states and run television ads. But, in Iowa, he now trails Mike Huckabee by three percentage points despite outspending Huckabee 20-to-1. In New Hampshire, he still enjoyed a solid lead in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll but the influential Manchester Union Leader gave its coveted endorsement to John McCain this past weekend.

It was also a bad week for Rudy Giuliani whose lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has been slipping ever since Wednesday’s “debate.”

Still, despite all the churning, one aspect of the race remains unchanged. New polling data released today shows that Giuliani is still viewed by Republicans as the most electable candidate. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Republican voters believe that Giuliani is at least somewhat likely to win it all if nominated. That figure includes 31% who believe he is Very Likely to win the general election for the GOP.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Republicans believe that both Romney and McCain are at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Fifty-four percent (54%) say the same about Huckabee.

In many ways, this dynamic has defined the Republican race from the beginning. GOP Primary voters like Giuliani but see him as politically moderate or liberal. Voters in a conservative leaning party are looking for a more conservative candidate but also want someone who can win in November 2008. It remains to be seen whether ideology or electability wins out. Or, perhaps, a more conservative candidate may come to be seen as electable as Giuliani.

In the end, the bottom line analysis remains the same. There are five candidates for the Republican nomination polling in double-digits nationally. For all of the top five Republican candidates, it is easier to develop a plausible explanation as to why they won’t win the nomination than to show how they will win the prize.

But, one of them will win the nomination… and we may have a much clearer picture of the prospects once voters have their say in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day. Survey interviews were not conducted over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend and daily updates will resume Tuesday, November 27.

Those results are based upon a four-day rolling average and provide a quick update on the race.

In addition to the daily tracking poll, Rasmussen Reports provides weekly results to provide a longer-term overview of the race. These updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys. Results are reported based upon interviews conducted on the seven days up to and including the night before posting.

For the seven days ending December 2, 2007 show that Rudy Giuliani earns 23% of the vote while Mike Huckabee has jumped to 15% for the week. Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, and John McCain each attract 13%. Ron Paul’s support for the week is at 6%, Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter are both at 1% and 16% are undecided (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters. This includes both Republicans and those independents likely to vote in a Republicans Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.