If John McCain is elected President, 49% of voters say it is at least somewhat likely that the United States will win the War in Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 20% believe victory in Iraq is likely if Barack Obama is elected in November.

However, the survey also found that voters believe Obama is more likely than McCain to bring home U.S. troops from Iraq. If Obama is elected, 59% say it is at least somewhat likely that virtually all combat troops will come home from Iraq during his first term. Just 43% believe the troops are that likely to come home if McCain is elected.

Most Americans—52%--say bringing the troops home within four years is a higher priority than winning the War. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disagree and say winning the War is more important. Men, by a 51% to 44% margin, say it is more important to win the War. Women, by a two-to-one margin, say it is more important to get the troops home.

Those who believe that winning the War is more important have a high degree of confidence that McCain can achieve that goal--84% believe that victory is at least somewhat likely if McCain is elected.

Among those who believe that getting the troops home is the top priority, there is a bit less confidence—67% believe that if Obama is elected the troops will be home within four years.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats say it is more important to get the troops home while 72% of Republicans say it is more important to win the War. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided—47% say bringing home the troops is the top priority while 42% say victory is more important.

Unaffiliated voters are also evenly divided as to the prospects for victory if McCain is elected—46% of unaffiliated voters say victory is likely while 45% say it is not. If Obama is elected, 15% of unaffiliated voters say victory is likely while 77% disagree.

Among unaffiliated voters, the expectations gap is smaller on the question of getting troops home. Fifty-four percent (54%) say it’s likely that an Obama victory in November will get the troops home within four years. Forty-two percent (42%) say that result is likely if McCain wins.

Conservatives, by a 67% to 26% margin, say victory is more important. Liberals, by an 80% to 11% margin, hold the opposite view.

Just 33% of voters under 30 consider victory the top priority. While older voters are more likely to see victory as important, a plurality or majority of every age bracket believes that getting the troops home is the more important objective.

Tracking polls by Rasmussen Reports routinely show that six-out-of-ten voters want troops home from Iraq within a year. Roughly one-out-of-four want the troops brought home immediately and one-third want the troops to remain until the mission is complete. During Election 2008, the two presidential campaigns will focus their energies on the middle group, those who want the troops to come home but aren’t calling for an immediate withdrawal. These voters represent slightly under 40% of the nation’s voters.

In the race for the White House, Obama and McCain are essentially tied at this time according to the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

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