Nearly half of U.S. voters (49%) think it is at least somewhat likely that Hillary Clinton will overshadow the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee Barack Obama at the party’s national political convention next week. Twenty-three percent (23%) say it is Very Likely.

Even 44% of Democrats think it is at least somewhat likely to happen, including 18% who say it is Very Likely, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Given in part to Mrs. Clinton’s recent resurgence, there is far more interest than usual in this year’s political conventions, with 44% of voters saying they are more likely to watch them than the conventions in previous years. Far fewer (28%) say they are less likely to watch, and one quarter (25%) say this year is no different than any other.

Nearly as many voters (47%) do not expect Mrs. Clinton to overshadow her party’s likely nominee, although only 8% say it is Not At All Likely. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Democrats say it isn’t likely to happen, but only 10% say it won’t happen period.

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With the race nationally between Obama and Republican presidential candidate John McCain remaining very close in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the conventions – and the upcoming announcements of each man’s running mate – are seen as key to moving the race off center.

As Mark J. Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s chief adviser during much of her unsuccessful presidential bid, notes in The Politico today (Tuesday), “This year, the party that wins the battle of the conventions will likely win the election.”

Indicative of the interest in the Denver gathering and the higher level of voter enthusiasm in the Democratic primaries in the spring, 56% of Democrats say they are more likely to watch the conventions this year, versus 19% who say they are less likely to watch. With Obama expected to be the first African-American presidential candidate of a major national political party, 77% of black voters say they are more likely to watch the conventions this year.

By contrast, more Republicans (40%) say they are less likely to watch the conventions than those who say they are more likely to do so (31%). McCain defeated his opponents for the nomination relatively early in the primary season, and the party has been unified behind him for some time now, likely muting enthusiasm for the GOP’s national convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, in early September.

Unaffiliated voters are more interested in conventions, too. Forty percent (40%) say they are more likely to watch this year, as opposed to 29% who describe themselves as less likely.

At the same time, 52% of voters describe political conventions in general as boring versus 32% who say they are exciting. Again, Democrats are more interested than the norm this year. More Democrats rate conventions as exciting (44%) than those who characterize them as boring (35%). For 64% of Republicans and 62% of unaffiliated voters, however, conventions are boring.

Reflective of the lack of drama in recent years, 49% of voters say conventions are a waste of time and money, while 30% think they are really necessary. Democrats are closely divided, with 36% saying conventions are a waste and 39% saying they are necessary. Once again, Republicans (59%) and unaffiliateds (54%) by high margins rate them more as a waste of time.

Mrs. Clinton quit the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in early June when Obama had secured enough delegates to be nominated. While she and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have strongly endorsed Obama’s candidacy, many of her supporters, especially women who reveled in the historical nature of her candidacy, have threatened to vote for McCain.

In part to heal this divide, Obama has given Mrs. Clinton a primetime slot to speak on August 26, the second night of the convention, and President Clinton will speak the following night. In addition to putting her name in nomination, Mrs. Clinton’s supporters also plan a march through Denver on the day she speaks which is the 88th anniversary of women’s suffrage.

While some Democrats have complained that allowing Mrs. Clinton’s name to be put in nomination shows weakness on Obama’s part, one third of voters (33%) nationwide in an earlier Rasmussen Reports survey said the move will help unify the party, but 40% disagreed. Among Democrats, 48% said the move will help unify them, but 28% did not think so.

In the new survey, 49% of voters say Obama will give a better speech than Bill Clinton at the convention, although 31% give the former president the edge. Nearly twice as many Democrats (59%) think Obama will do better than Clinton (30%).

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