Will he or won’t he?

Will moderate Republican Colin Powell, the first African-American to serve as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and secretary of State, endorse Democrat Barack Obama, the first black presidential candidate of a major U.S. political party?

A plurality of voters (42%) say Powell is at least somewhat likely to do so in his appearance tomorrow on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Fourteen percent (14%) say Powell is Very Likely to endorse Obama, while six percent (6%) say that’s not likely at all.

But 35% think Powell is at least somewhat likely to endorse Obama’s opponent, Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who, like Powell, is a combat veteran of the Vietnam War. Only nine percent (9%) think a McCain endorsement is Very Likely, and an identical number (9%) say it isn’t likely at all.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) say a Powell endorsement of either candidate is not at all likely to influence their vote. Only 12% say it is somewhat likely to do so.

In a survey in February, Powell’s endorsement was the only one out of a list of 15 different public figures, publications, national associations and politicians that would have a significant net positive impact on voters. Twenty-eight percent (28%) said a Powell endorsement would make voters more likely to vote for a candidate versus 19% who would be less likely to vote for that candidate.

In the latest survey, Democrats by 20 points over Republicans think Powell is more likely to endorse Obama. GOP voters by 19 believe Powell is more likely to endorse their candidate.

Among unaffiliated voters, 33% say Powell is at least somewhat likely to endorse Obama, while 41% say that of a likely McCain endorsement.

Take a minute to predict which candidate Powell will endorse, if anyone.

White and African-American voters track very similarly on the likelihood of Powell endorsing Obama, although just two percent (2%) of blacks say such an endorsement is not at all possible compared to seven percent (7%) of whites.

While 34% of whites say a Powell endorsement of McCain is at least somewhat likely, only 25% of blacks agree. Fourteen percent (14%) of African-Americans say it is not at all likely, compared to nine percent (9%) of whites.

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Eighty percent (80%) of voters have a favorable view of Powell, who many Republicans have hoped over the years would seek the party’s presidential nomination. Powell has chosen not to run, reportedly in part because of his wife’s fears for his safety.

Just 15% have an unfavorable view of Powell, despite his high-profile presentation of U.S. intelligence findings on weapons of mass destruction to the United Nations prior to the invasion of Iraq. Those findings subsequently proved to be wrong and have seriously hurt U.S. standing in the world ever since.

Powell was viewed as a moderate voice in the Bush administration to counter the more hawkish views of Vice President Dick Cheney and then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Powell stepped down as secretary of State in January 2005 and was succeeded by Condoleezza Rice.

While he has been consulted by both McCain and Obama, Powell has avoided an endorsement of any kind, so his appearance tomorrow, less than three weeks before the election, has raised political expectations.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Powell, as do 81% of unaffiliated voters and 77% of Democrats. Eighty-two percent (82%) of white voters and 72% of African-Americans share that view.

Only 23% of voters, however, say Powell would make a better president than either Obama or McCain, and 43% disagree. Thirty-four percent (34%) are undecided.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of men say Powell would make a better president than the two current candidates, compared to 20% of women. Twenty-six percent (26%) of whites feel that way, too, versus 12% of African-Americans.

Yet nearly half of black voters (47%) are undecided, while just 31% of whites are not sure.

Likely McCain voters are closely divided over whether Powell would make a better president. Just 16% of likely Obama voters believe Powell would make a better president than Obama or McCain, and 52% disagree.

Nationally, with the steady drumbeat of bad economic news, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

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