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Pennsylvania: Kerry 46% Bush 45%
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In Pennsylvania, the race for the White House is a virtual tie.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 46% of the vote and President Bush with 45%. Four years ago, Bush lost Pennsylvania's 21 Electoral College votes to Al Gore by five percentage points.

One month ago, Kerry held a 48% to 43% lead in Pennsylvania. At that time, we moved the state from the "Toss-up" category to "Leans Kerry" for our Electoral College projections. However, a mid-month update provided to Premium Members showed that Kerry's lead was a bit smaller so we moved Pennsylvania back to "Toss-Up" status. That's where it remains today.

Two months ago, Bush was up by a single point in the Keystone state, 45% to 44%.

Among Pennsylvania Investors, Bush leads 48% to 44%. However, among non-Investors, Kerry has a seven-point edge, 48% to 41%.

In Pennsylvania, 53% of all voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's up six points from a month ago and close to his national Job Approval rating.

Data for Pennsylvania will be updated again early next month.

Rasmussen Reports is an independent public opinion research firm that provides daily updates on the Presidential election and the nation's economic confidence.

In August, we have released state election polls for Washington, Maine, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Oregon, New Jersey, Arkansas, New Mexico, California, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Georgia, Illinois, and Minnesota.

Last month, we also issued state election polls for Alabama, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, and South Carolina.. These states will be updated in the next few days. Polling data from additional states will also be released.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

State data from National Survey of 15,000 Likely Voters

July 1-31, 2004

Pennsylvania 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush

45%

Kerry

46%

Other

5%

Not Sure

4%

RasmussenReports.com

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