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Iowa: Kerry 48% Bush 45%
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In Iowa, the latest Rasmussen Reports polling data shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 45%. Four years ago, Al Gore narrowly carried Iowa by a 49% to 48% margin.

Iowa remains in the "Toss-up" category for our Electoral College projections.

A month ago, Kerry had a four-point lead. The month before that, Kerry leading by eight percentage points, 49% to 41%. The overwhelming majority of the interviews for this survey were completed after John Edwards was named as the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate. Roughly three-quarters of the interviews were completed before the Democratic National Convention.

Kerry became the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination by winning the Iowa caucuses. Iowa Governor Thomas Vilsack was reportedly on the short-list that Kerry considered for his Vice-Presidential running mate.

Kerry has secured the vote from 87% of Iowa Democrats while Bush has done the same with 86% of the state's Republicans. Among those who are not affiliated with either political party, it's tied with each candidate earning 42% of the vote. Last month, Kerry held the lead among Iowa's undecided voters, 43% to 39%.

[NOTE: More recent data for Iowa, provided to our Premium Members, shows that the state has drifted back to Leans Kerry status in mid-August. The next public update of Iowa polling data will come in the first week of September.]

In Iowa, 54% of all voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's unchanged from a month ago and slightly above his national Job Approval rating. Early in the year, President Bush's Approval Ratings remained low in Iowa as Democratic Presidential hopefuls camped in the state and campaigned aggressively for the first competition in the 2004 campaign season.

Among voters who are not affiliated with either major political party, 58% give the President's performance their Approval. That's unchanged from a month ago.

Data for Iowa will be updated again early next month.

Rasmussen Reports is an independent public opinion research firm that provides daily updates on the Presidential election and the nation's economic confidence.

In August, we have released state election polls for Washington, Maine, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Oregon, New Jersey, Arkansas, New Mexico, California, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Georgia, Illinois, and Minnesota.

Last month, we also issued state election polls for Alabama, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, and South Carolina.. These states will be updated in the next few days. Polling data from additional states will also be released.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 15,000 Likely Voters
July 1-31, 2004

Iowa 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush

45%

Kerry

48%

Other

3%

Not Sure

3%

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