If the race for Congress were held today, 42% of Americans say they would vote for a Democratic candidate while 38% would vote for a Republican. Earlier Rasmussen Reports surveys conducted since the War with Iraq began found that voters were evenly divided between the parties.

The national telephone survey of 1,380 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 11-13, 2003. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The decline in Republican support at the Congressional level matches a recent decline in President Bush's poll numbers. Continuing casualties in Iraq, a disappointing employment report, and other news have apparently had an impact.

As you would expect, Republicans do better among Investors than non-Investors. Among the Investor Class, the Congressional Ballot is a toss-up with 41% expressing a preference for the GOP while 40% would vote for the Democrats. Among non-Investors, Democrats hold a clear lead, 43% to 35%.

At the Congressional level, men are evenly divided while women prefer the Democratic candidates by eight percentage points.

The generic Congressional Ballot provides reliable measures of changing public perceptions. However, it does not translate directly to electoral outcomes. Congressional elections are held in 435 separate districts and in most races the incumbent representative is unbeatable. Only 30 to 50 House seats are likely to be competitive in the 2004 election.

In the U.S. Senate, elections are held on a state-by-state basis with just one-third of the Senate being elected in any given year. In 2004, the states holding Senate elections are more friendly to Republicans than Democrats.