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California: Kerry 51% Bush 42%
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On the eve of the Republican National Convention, Senator John Kerry's lead in California is half what is was a month ago.

In the Golden State, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Senator John F. Kerry with 51% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 42%. Our previous California survey showed Kerry with an 18-point lead, 55% to 37%. Two months ago, Kerry had an 8-point lead in California.

In Election 2000, Bush lost California to Al Gore by 11 points. The new survey results have no impact on our Electoral College totals since California was already in the Kerry column.

Our previous survey, released August 3, was based upon interviews conducted during the month of July. That month saw Kerry enjoy a modest bounce in the national polls following his announcement of a running mate and the Democratic National Convention. On a national basis, Kerry received a two-point bounce in July.

The current survey is based upon interviews with 654 Likely Voters conducted over the past ten days.

Among California Investors, Kerry leads 50% to 43%. Among non-Investors, he leads 53% to 41%.

Forty-six percent (46%) of California voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's up a point from a month ago and up four points from two months ago. It remains significantly lower than his national Job Approval rating.

Leading up to the Republican National Convention, we have released state polling data in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio. Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin

Beginning September 1, Rasmussen Reports will expand our Tracking Poll to 1,000 Likely Voters per night. At the same time, we will increase the flow of information provided both on the public site and for our Premium Members.

Premium Service during the final two months of the campaign will include daily tracking for Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania along with provide frequent updates for many other states and key Senate races. Details on the Premium Member enhancements will be released this weekend.

State data will be provided for the public site on a regular, but less frequent, basis.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 654 Likely Voters
August 16-26, 2004

California 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush

42%

Kerry

51%

Other

3%

Not Sure

3%

RasmussenReports.com

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