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California: Kerry 51% Bush 40%
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In the state of California, a Rasmussen Reports survey finds that Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush by eleven points, 51% to 40%. That spread matches the 11 point margin of victory earned by Al Gore four years ago.

A month ago, Rasmussen Reports polling found Kerry leading in California by nine points.

This finding is consistent with other state polling data from around the nation showing that in many ways Election 2004 is beginning where Election 2000 ended--in a dead heat. On a national basis, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Election Tracking Poll has found Bush and Kerry virtually even for weeks. Not only that, the candidates are just one point apart in Florida.

California has been a safe state for Democratic Presidential contenders in recent years. Some analysts speculate that the Recall effort and election of a Republican Governor last year may make the state competitive for the President in 2004. That does not appear to be the case.

Just 44% of California voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. Another 55% disapprove. This is significantly lower than the President's national Job Approval rating.

A month ago, the President's Job Approval in California was six points higher at 50%.

In January, a Rasmussen Reports survey found the President trailing a generic Democrat by five points. At that time, 51% approved of the President's performance and 47% disapproved.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 502 Likely Voters April 17-24, 2004

 

California 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush

40%

Kerry

51%

Other

5%

Not Sure

4%

RasmussenReports.com

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