Forty-five percent (45%) of American voters expect sectarian violence in Iraq to increase if U.S. combat troops are withdrawn. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 19% believe the level of violence will decrease. Fifteen percent (15%) say the level of violence won’t change while 21% are not sure.

At the same time, 44% of voters believe that the lives of the Iraqi people will be better when the U.S. troops leave than they were under the regime of Saddam Hussein. Twenty-one percent (21%) hold the opposite view and believe that the lives of the Iraqi people will be worse than they were under Hussein. The Rasmussen Reports survey found that 11% don’t think things will be much different than under Hussein while 24% are not sure. Voters over 40 are more optimistic about improved lives for the Iraqi people.

While a solid plurality of Americans believes the Iraqi people will be better off when U.S. troops leave, there is a much more divided opinion concerning the impact on the United States. Thirty-two percent (32%) believe the U.S. will be safer when the troops leave than when Hussein was in power. Twenty-five percent (25%) take the opposite view and say the U.S. will be less safe as a result of the overall mission in Iraq. Twenty-one percent (21%) say there will be little or no difference while 22% are not sure.

These results come at a time when most Americans want U.S. troops to leave Iraq by early next year and just 19% believe the recent troop “surge” was a success.

As with all things on Iraq, partisan differences of opinion abound. Republicans overwhelmingly believe that the withdrawal of troops will lead to an increase in sectarian violence. Democrats are evenly divided on that question. The same is true on the question about the Iraqi people—Republicans overwhelming believe that they will be better off than they were under Hussein while Democrats are more evenly divided. In both cases, the views of unaffiliateds are midway between the partisan extremes.

Rasmussen Reports measures and reports public opinion on the issues of the day. Latest updates are available on the Rasmussen Reports home page.

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