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Poll: 57% Say War With Iran Likely
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Fifty-seven percent (57%) of American adults say it is at least somewhat likely that the United States will be at war with Iran before another year goes by (see crosstabs).

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of 1,000 adults found that 23% believe that War with Iran is Very Likely. Another 34% say it is Somewhat Likely. Thirty-two percent (32%) disagree and say War with Iran is Not Very Likely (26%) or Not at All Likely (6%).

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Republicans believe war is likely along with 59% of Democrats. Younger Americans are more likely to believe that war is coming than their elders.

The survey also found that 75% of Americans believe it’s likely that Iran will soon develop nuclear weapons. That figure is little changed since last September.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of Americans believe it is possible to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons while 37% disagree. However, just 27% believe diplomatic efforts will be enough to stop Iran from creating nuclear weapons. Forty-three percent (43%) disagree.

Among women, there is no gap between those who say Iran can be stopped and those who say diplomatic efforts can stop them. Among men, however, 45% believe Iran can be stopped. Only 29% believe diplomacy can do so.

Among Democrats, only 29% say that Iran can be prevented from developing nuclear weapons. However, that figure jumps to 34% when asked if diplomatic efforts could accomplish the task.

Republicans and those not affiliated with either major party have a different assessment. Forty-two percent (42%) of Republicans believe that Iran can be stopped, but only 24% believe diplomacy can achieve that result. Among unaffiliateds, those numbers are 36% and 22% respectively.

Separate surveys show that Americans remain quite pessimistic about the War on Terror. Just 37% now believe that the U.S. and its allies are winning and only 33% believe the President’s troop surge will succeed.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 1,000 Adults
February 2-3, 2007

How likely is it that Iran will soon develop nuclear weapons?

Very Likely

42%

Somewhat Likely

33%

Not Very Likely

11%

Not at All Likely

2%

How likely is it that the United States will be at war with Iran within the next year?

Very Likely

23%

Somewhat Likely

34%

Not Very Likely

26%

Not at All Likely

6%

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