On Friday, the U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly to build a 700-mile barrier along the Mexican border, bowing to public opinion as an election draws near. With most Democrats voting against the measure and all but one Republican in favor of it, a partisan distinction is starting to emerge. That may contribute to a somewhat less discouraging political environment for the GOP this fall, but Republicans are still facing a difficult set of issues.

Also, it’s not clear how this distinction on immigration will impact the competitive races in our Senate Balance of Power summary (see state-by-state summary).

REPUBLICANS

Every Republican except Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island voted for the legislation. This might at first glance be an unpopular vote back home for the Senator who is trailing in his bid for re-election. Surveys earlier this year found that 68% of Rhode Island voters agreed that it makes no sense to consider new immigration reform until after our borders are secured and existing laws enforced. Just 22% disagreed. By a 60%-27% margin, Rhode Island voters favor building a barrier.

However, Chafee faces a unique circumstance as the most liberal Republican in the Senate running in a very Democratic state. He narrowly survived a heated primary to win the nomination… and did so with strong support from the national Republican Party. That pushed Democrats more solidly into his opponent’s camp. As a result, Chafee needs to find ways to demonstrate to Democratic and unaffiliated voters that he marches to a different drummer than the Republicans in Washington.

For other Republicans in contested races, the vote is clearly in line with opinion back home. In Virginia, by a 64% to 26% margin, voters favor a barrier along the border and George Allen will be happy to tell them about his vote. Montana voters favor it by a 59% to 30% margin, good news for the embattled Conrad Burns (R).

Voters in Missouri, Ohio, Arizona, and Pennsylvania all strongly favor an enforcement-first policy. That’s good news for incumbents Jim Talent (R), Mike DeWine (R), Jon Kyl (R), and Rick Santorum (R), each of whom is locked in a challenging re-election effort.

DEMOCRATS

Not many Democrats are in trouble this election cycle, but Ben Nelson (NE) and Debbie Stabenow (MI) both voted in favor of the border measure. Nelson is running in a very Republican state and, despite his personal popularity, can never be sure of a solid majority. Nebraska voters favor a border barrier by a 61% to 29% margin.

Stabenow is running for re-election in a state that has been staggered with bad economic news and job loss all year. While the incumbent Senator leads in her re-election bid, there is enough uncertainty to make anybody nervous. By a 74% to 17% margin, Michigan voters favor the enforcement first approach to immigration reform.

Perhaps the most surprising “No” vote came from New Jersey’s appointed Senator Robert Menendez. He is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent and voters in the Garden State favor building a barrier by a 65% to 27% margin. They favor an enforcement-first strategy by a 66% to 29% margin.

Maria Cantwell, holding a narrow lead in Washington, voted against the bill as well. Voters in her northwestern state favor enforcement first policies by a 62% to 26% margin. While many Republicans have had their eye on Cantwell’s seat all year, it looks like a long shot at best for challenger Mike McGavick today.

Joe Lieberman of Connecticut also voted against the wall despite the fact that 57% of Connecticut voters favor it. Lieberman, of course, is in a unique circumstance. He’s in the Senate as a Democrat but running for re-election as an Independent against the man who beat him in the Primary. Like Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, Lieberman needs to demonstrate distance from the White House and the Republican Party if he is to keep his job.

Ted Kennedy is the only Senator who did not vote on the legislation. He hails from one of only two states where less than 50% favor a barrier along the Mexican border (the other is Vermont).

BACKGROUND

Earlier national surveys by Rasmussen Reports surveys have consistently found that a solid majority of Americans prefer an enforcement-first immigration policy rather than the so-called “comprehensive” approach initially considered by the Senate last spring. Separate surveys also found support for building a barrier along the Mexican border and found that American voters were more likely to favor a Congressional candidate who emphasizes enforcement of existing laws rather than one who prefers expanding legal job opportunities for foreign workers.

To date, neither political party has gained a clear advantage on the immigration issue, but passage of this legislation gives Republicans a chance to highlight a distinction between the two parties.

Overall, it’s safe to say that America’s political elite misunderstood the public mood with its early push for reforms that put primary emphasis on legalizing the status of undocumented workers already in the United States. Many who favored legalization or earned citizenship as the primary purpose of reform viewed those who favor border control anti-immigrant (or perhaps racist). However, Rasmussen Reports data shows an entirely different picture. Most who support an enforcement first policy also support a generally welcoming approach to immigration.

Still, neither party actively supported proposals for strict employer sanctions, a reform with significant popular support. If there’s more movement in the immigration debate between now and 2008, expect it to move in the direction of more border security and enforcement.