If the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats passes, 57% of voters nationwide believe it will raise the cost of health care, and 53% believe the quality of care will get worse. That’s part of the reason that just 45% support the plan. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% are opposed to it.

Those numbers include 23% who Strongly Favor the plan and 40% who are Strongly Opposed.

Just 18% say passage of the congressional plan will reduce costs, while only 23% believe it will lead to better care.

Still, despite the less-than-enthusiastic support, 54% say passage of the plan is at least somewhat likely this year. Thirty-five percent (35%) say it is not.

Perhaps the most stunning aspect of the numbers is how stable they have been through months of debate, town hall protests, presidential speeches, congressional wrangling, and more. With the exception of bounces following nationally televised presidential pitches for the plan, support has stayed between 41% and 46% since July. In all cases, the intensity has been with the opposition as the number who Strongly Oppose the bill has remained nearly double the number who Strongly Support it. Rasmussen Reports is tracking support for the plan on a weekly basis.

Voters under 30 are most likely to support the health care proposal while those over 65 are the least supportive. Just 36% of senior citizens favor the plan while 58% are opposed. Those figures include just 19% of senior citizens who Strongly Favor the plan and 47% who are Strongly Opposed.

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Polling released last week showed that health care reform remains the top priority for Democratic voters. However, it ranks fourth on a list of four among Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party. Overall, 38% of voters see deficit reduction as most important among the four priorities listed by the president earlier this year, while 23% cite health care reform as tops.

Polling on the health care topic by many firms has created some confusion. In particular, polls on the “public option” show a wide variety of results. A recent poll in The Washington Post found that 57% support a government-run health insurance company to compete with private insurers, but our polling shows that support is very soft. In fact, people are strongly opposed to a public option if they think it could lead employers to drop the existing coverage they provide employees. The fact that results are so subject to change based upon minor differences in question wording suggests that voters do not have firm opinions on the public option.

Virtually all polling shows a plurality or majority opposed to the current plan in Congress. The poll in The Washington Post found just 45% for the congressional plan among all adults. Additionally, support for the current plan has remained stable suggesting that public opinion is firmly established at this time.

Other polling released last week showed that 49% would rather see no health care legislation passed this year than see the current bill become law. Two-thirds (66%) say an increase in competition is more likely than increased government regulation to reduce the cost of health care. That’s one reason there is strong support for removing the exemption from anti-trust laws currently enjoyed by insurance companies.

While voters are skeptical of the plan working its way through Congress, 54% say that major changes are needed in the health care system. Sixty-one percent (61%) say it’s important for Congress to pass some reform.

A Rasmussen video report shows that 53% of those with insurance believe it’s likely they would have to change coverage if the congressional plan becomes law. Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters say guaranteeing that no one is forced to change their health insurance coverage is a higher priority than giving consumers the choice of a "public option" health insurance company.

As Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, wrote recently in the Wall Street Journal: “The most important fundamental is that 68% of American voters have health insurance coverage they rate good or excellent. … Most of these voters approach the health care reform debate fearing that they have more to lose than to gain.”

Only 31% believe Congress has a good understanding of the proposed health care reform.

Just 18% expect the final health care plan to be bipartisan. Yet 42% of all voters attribute Republican opposition to partisan politics rather than substance.

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