Forty-nine percent (49%) of U.S. voters now at least somewhat oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, while 46% at least somewhat favor it, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Just two weeks ago, 50% were for the reform plan, and 45% were opposed.

The “nays” also continue to have the edge in terms of intensity. While 22% strongly favor the Democrats’ health care reform plan, 38% strongly oppose it, up four points from the previous survey.
Among those voters who have health insurance, opposition is even higher: 43% favor the plan, but 52% oppose it. Those who strongly oppose it outnumber those who strongly favor it by two-to-one – 40% to 20%.

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The question did not in any way describe the plan as it stands to date. It was simply presented as “the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats.” Passage of the plan by August, as the president had hoped, now seems unlikely, with Democrats arguing primarily over how to meet its estimated $1 trillion price tag. But public opinion could shift in either direction if agreement is reached and as details of the plan become clearer.

Despite the decline in support, 52% of voters say it is at least somewhat likely that the plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats will become law this year. including 16% who say it’s very likely. Thirty-six percent (36%) see passage as unlikely this year. These findings are virtually unchanged from two weeks ago.

Rasmussen Reports will be tracking the public response to the proposal at least monthly for as long as the legislative debate continues.

The partisan intensity is getting stronger, too. Sixty percent (60%) of Republicans strongly oppose the plan, up three points from two weeks ago, but only 35% of Democrats strongly favor it, down eight points from the earlier survey. Even more noticeably, among voters not affiliated with either party, those strongly opposed to the health care reform plan have risen 12 points over the past two weeks from 39% to 51%.

Most voters (57%) say it is at least somewhat likely that their own health insurance coverage will change if the proposed health reform plan passes, including 30% who say it is very likely.

Just 12% say their own health care coverage will get better if the reform plan is passed. Thirty-nine percent (39%) expect their own coverage to get worse, while 36% say it will stay about the same.
These are questions to watch because while Americans generally support the idea of health care reform, most also like their current coverage.

Support for the reform plan is likely to turn on whether voters think their own coverage is at risk. The president recently acknowledged that while the plan won’t force Americans to change doctors, such a change might be an unintended consequence of the proposed government-run health insurance plan.
Americans so far are evenly divided over whether there is a need for a public health insurance plan to compete with private insurers.

They’re similarly divided over the urgency for health care reform: 43% say it should move ahead right now, but 44% say reform should wait until the economy gets better.

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