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Americans See A Better 2009 But No End to Recession
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Americans have a bit more confidence in 2009 than in the year that just passed, but 50% of adults believe the country will still be in a recession this time next year.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) say 2008 was a good or excellent year, and three percent (3%) say it was the best year ever, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Thirty-eight percent (38%) rate 2008 as poor.

Thirty-two percent (32%) expect 2009 to be good or excellent, with five percent (5%) more predicting it will be the best ever. Twenty-three percent (23%) say it’s going to be a poor year.

By comparison, this time last year 54% of Americans said 2007 was either good, excellent or one of the best years ever for them personally. Only 20% gave it poor marks.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) expected 2008 to be excellent, good or the best ever for them, with just seven percent (7%) predicting poor. Oops. Then came the financial meltdown.

Only 17% now say the country will not be in recession at the end of this year, with 33% unsure.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of investors believe the United States still will be in a recession, compared to 49% of non-investors. However, only 21% of investors think 2009 will be a poor year versus 24% of those who do not invest.

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes, which track daily confidence levels, continue to linger in record low territory.

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Ten percent (10%) of African-Americans rated 2008 as the best year ever, perhaps buoyed by the election of the country’s first black president, compared to three percent (3%) of whites. But 44% of blacks also tagged the past year as poor, while only 37% of whites agreed.

Republicans had a higher opinion of 2008 even though Democrats won the White House and grew their congressional majorities in the election last November. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Republicans said last year was excellent, good or the best ever versus 20% of Democrats. Similarly, 46% of Democrats said it was a poor year, an opinion shared by just 28% of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters fell between the two.

Republicans are more optimistic about 2009, but 26% percent of them also think the year will be poor, compared to 19% of Democrats and 25% of unaffiliateds.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of whites and 29% of blacks think 2009 will be excellent, good or the best ever. Yet while 26% of whites expect it to be a poor year, just 10% of blacks agree.

Just 17% of voters believe the United States is moving in the right direction, while 77% say it is heading down the wrong track.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republicans and 46% of Democrats say the country will remain in a recession for the next 12 months.

Men and women over the age of 40 are more pessimistic about the economy than those younger than them. Fifty-three percent (53%) of whites believe the country still will be in recession a year from now, compared to 38% of blacks.

A majority of Americans expect the value of their homes to go up over the next five years, but only 17% say their house will be worth more within the next 12 months.

Americans are more optimistic about themselves personally, though. Nearly one-third (32%) believe their health will be better at the end of 2009, while 52% figure it will be about the same. Only six percent (6%) expect their health to get worse, and 11% are not sure.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.