Despite the fact that President-elect Barack Obama promised billions of dollars in tax breaks as part of his economic plan, just 21% believe their taxes will go down during his presidency. A larger number, 29%, expect their taxes to go up during the Obama years. (see demographic crosstabs)

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 35% think their taxes will stay about the same and another 15% are not sure.

The President-elect has made some progress in convincing voters that he will honor his tax-cutting campaign promises. In December, only 15% expected a tax cut while 34% were wary of a tax hike.

Still, the Obama team has some work to do before they regain the confidence they had during the campaign season. In the final days of Election 2008, 31% of voters expected that an Obama victory would reduce their taxes.

Most voters (60%) prefer a tax policy that helps the economy grow, while 35% place more importance on everyone paying their fair share of taxes. That’s a considerable shift from last summer when voters were evenly divided as to whether promoting growth or fairness was more important.

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One constant in views on tax policy is that most voters consistently believe tax cuts help the economy--56% now hold that view while only 16% think tax cuts are bad for the economy. Not surprisingly, perceptions of a tax hike are a mirror image of those views with most people believing that tax hikes hurt the economy. (See demographic crosstabs)

Voters are evenly divided on the question of preferring a candidate who promised to oppose all tax increases or one who promised to raise taxes only on the rich.

Over half of all Republicans think their taxes will go up during the Obama years while only 8% say they will go down. Democrats are more hopeful—31% expect a tax cut while only 13% are counting on a higher tax bill.

Over a third of investors (36%) think their taxes will increase under Obama, while only 17% of non-investors hold that view.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters believe they pay more than their fair share of taxes, the highest level found since early July. Only 28% think they are paying their fair share.

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