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Americans Still See Economic Recovery As A Long-Term Process
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Most Americans remain confident that the U.S. economy will be stronger in five years than it is today, but most also expect very little to change in the next 12 months.

The numbers are largely unchanged from early January.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Americans say the economy will be stronger in five years than it is today, while just 17% think it will be weaker by then, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

But, opinion is much more evenly divided on expectations for the next twelve months--only 42% say the economy will be stronger in a year’s time, and nearly as many (37%) expect it to be weaker.

Just 12% believe the stock market will recover within a year. Twenty-one percent (21%) say it will take two years, and 13% believe three years are needed. The plurality of adults (37%) predict it will take more than three years for the market to come back.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) also believe it will take more than three years for housing prices to recover. Some are more optimistic: Eight percent (8%) believe housing prices will come back within a year, 18% say two years, and 19% three years.

Neatly two-thirds of Americans think the housing market will improve only when the overall U.S. economy gets better.

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Forty-four percent (44%) of investors say the economy will be weaker 12 months from now, but 40% say it will be stronger. Five years from now, however, 66% of investors say the economy will be stronger. Nearly half of investors expect it to take more than three years for both the stock market and housing prices to recover.

Consumer and Investor confidence has set record lows several times in 2008 and 2009 and continues to do so.

Democrats are far more confident about the economy than Republicans in both the short- and long-term. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Democrats say the economy will be stronger within a year, but 57% of Republicans predict it will be weaker. Adults not affiliated with either party are almost evenly divided on the question.

Most Democrats (55%) say the stock market will recover within three years, but just 40% of Republicans and 38% of unaffiliateds agree.

Half of all Americans (53%) now say the United States is at least somewhat likely to enter a 1930’s-like depression within the next few years.

Confidence about the availability of jobs also has dropped over the past two months.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 1,000 Adults
March 7-8, 2009

A year from today will the economy be stronger than it is now or weaker?

Stronger

42%

Weaker

37%

About the same

9%

Not sure

12%

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