Trump Change: Most GOP Voters Still See Trump As Likely Nominee

It still looks like a “Donald” world as far as most Republican voters are concerned.

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly Trump Change survey finds that 64% of Likely Republican Voters think Donald Trump is likely to be the GOP presidential nominee next year, but 33% still consider that outcome unlikely. This includes 19% who say a Trump nomination is Very Likely and 10% who consider it Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The overall number of GOP voters who think Trump is the likely nominee is up from 56% last week, but interestingly, the number of those who see his nomination as Very Likely is down from 30%. We’ll be watching the latter figure in the weeks ahead.

Overall belief among Republican voters that the billionaire developer is likely to win the nomination spiked to a high of 74% two weeks ago but has generally run in the mid-50s for most weeks since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly survey in mid-August.

Among all likely voters, 48% think Trump is the likely GOP nominee, with 15% who say it’s Very Likely. Forty-six percent (46%) view a Trump nomination as unlikely, including 19% who say it’s Not At All Likely. This is consistent with most weeks since the survey began.

In a survey of the top Republican presidential contenders following the last intraparty debate, Trump led with 31% of the vote. Dr. Ben Carson was a distant second with 20% support.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on November 3-4, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Following Congress’ passage of a bipartisan budget plan that allows the federal government to borrow even more money, voters strongly believe politicians from both major parties don’t want to cut spending the way voters do. This unhappiness with the GOP establishment helps explain the success of outsider candidates like Trump and Carson.

As long as the GOP race remains competitive, Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking Trump’s surprisingly successful run for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Most Democrats continue to doubt that Trump will be their GOP opponent next year, but most voters not affililated with either major party still feel “The Donald” is likely to win the nomination.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of conservative voters believe Trump is likely to be the nominee, but 56% of liberals consider it unlikely. Moderates are almost evenly divided.

Most blacks don’t see Trump going all the way; most whites and other minority voters do.

Senate Democrats have blocked “Kate’s Law,” but 56% of all voters favor a five-year mandatory prison sentence for illegal immigrants convicted of major felonies who return to America after being deported.

Trump has taken a lot of criticism from Democrats and other Republican presidential hopefuls over his candid remarks about the criminality of many illegal immigrants, but most voters agree with Trump that illegal immigration increases the level of serious crime.

The next Republican debate is Tuesday night. The last debate, hosted by CNBC, was a textbook example of the media bias voters have complained about in surveys for years.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.