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Democrats Regain Minor Lead on This Week's Generic Ballot

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

As Election Day draws closer, Democrats have stepped back out to hold a small lead over Republicans on this week’s Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one in mid-August when the two parties were tied at 44% apiece. But the Generic Congressional Ballot tightened back up into a tie the last two weeks following the conclusion of the controversial Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. 

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

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The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 14-18, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

At this time in 2014, prior to the last non-presidential year congressional elections, the two parties were tied at 41% each.  Republicans went on to gain control of the Senate in those elections and increase their majority in the House of Representatives.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans prefer the candidate from their party, while just as many Democrats (85%) opt for their party's candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Democrats post a 43% to 37% lead. But 21% of unaffiliated voters either prefer someone else or are undecided.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats would need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control.

In the U.S. Senate, 32 seats are up for grabs this November, but 23 of them are now held by Democrats. So Democrats need to hold all 23 of those and pick up two of the Republican seats to win control of the Senate. 

Most voters think Democrats are likely to take charge of the House of Representatives following next month’s elections but expect them to fall short of capturing the Senate, too.

While almost half of voters have watched at least one candidate debate this midterm election season, they’re split on whether those debates carry any value for them.

Health care is a major factor when it comes to whom voters will choose at the ballot this midterm election, but they continue to look to the free market, not the government, to solve the woes of rising health care costs.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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