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Democrats Maintain Lead on Generic Ballot

Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Democrats continue to lead over Republicans on the latest Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest telephone and online survey finds that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty percent (40%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

For two weeks in May, the parties were neck and neck on the Generic Ballot, but the Democrats regained their lead in early June and have maintained it since then. Two weeks ago, Democrats led by eight, their largest lead since January.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

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The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on July 22-26, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats would need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control. The big problem is that all but about 50 of the seats are shoo-ins for the party that now holds them.

In the U.S. Senate, 32 seats are up for grabs this November, but 23 of them are now held by Democrats. So Democrats need to hold all 23 of those and pick up two of the Republican seats to win control of the Senate. 

Republicans relate more to President Trump these days than they have since he was first elected, and they believe more strongly now that it’s important to keep the party on his side.

Perhaps that’s due in part to the fact that voters still have a strong attachment to the U.S. Constitution and think Trump has been more faithful to it than his predecessor in the White House.

Meanwhile, Democrats have a much more favorable opinion of socialism than Republicans, but they stop well short of thinking the Democratic Party should become a national socialist party.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

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To learn more about our methodology, click here.