Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 46%, Mack (R) 45%

After several months in which Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson appeared to have a comfortable lead over Republican Connie Mack in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, the race is now virtually even.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Nelson earning 46% of the vote, while Mack picks up support from 45%.  Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and another five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Nelson held a double-digit lead.  It is highly unlikely that public opinion shifted 10 points within a week. That suggests either last week's results or this week's may be an outlier. Polling theory suggests that one out of every 20 polls will produce results outside the margin of error. 

In August and September, Nelson had a lead in between these two most recent polls. Rasmussen Reports will poll the race again in the near future. 

Because of the inconsistency of these latest polls, the race moves from Safe Democrat to Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power Rankings. That's where it has been for most of the year.  

Mitt Romney has a four-point lead over President Obama in the race for Florida's Electoral College votes.  Florida is still considered a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections.

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nelson earns favorable reviews from 47% of Florida voters and unfavorable reviews from 40%. This includes 23% with a Very Favorable opinion of him and 24% with a Very Unfavorable one.

For Mack, favorables are 44% and unfavorables are 42%, with Very Favorables of 21% and Very Unfavorables of 22%. 

Mack, a congressman, now attracts 83% support from Republicans, up from 71% a week ago.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats plan to vote for Nelson, down from 91%.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 39% prefer Nelson, 32% Mack and 28% remain uncommitted to either candidate.

Just 15% of all voters in the state rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Forty-six percent (46%) say the economy is in poor shape. While 37% say economic conditions are getting better, 41% think they are getting worse. Nelson leads among voters who view the economy positively, while Mack is well ahead in the larger group that rates the economy as poor.

Elections for 33 U.S. Senate seats will be held in November. See the latest numbers in Arizona, Connecticut, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. 

Forty-seven percent (47%) of Florida voters now approve of the job Republican Governor Rick Scott is doing.  Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove. This includes Strong Approval from 20% and Strong Disapproval from 30%. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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