Regardless of who they plan to vote for, 46% of all voters now believe the Kerry-Edward team will win while 45% say the Bush-Cheney ticket will be re-elected.

While the one-point advantage is statistically insignificant, it's the first time that a plurality has expected a victory for the Democrats. Last week, 46% thought Bush would win while 44% said they expected a Kerry victory. That's quite a change from a month ago when 53% of American voters believed Bush would be re-elected and just 35% said Kerry would win.

The biggest difference is that Democrats are a lot more confident today than they were a month ago. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Kerry voters believe their man will win. That's up thirteen points from 70% a month ago.

Among liberal voters, 72% think Kerry will win. That's up from 64% a week ago and 49% a month ago.

At this point in time, John Edwards is perceived more favorably than the man he hopes to replace, Dick Cheney. However, unfavorables for both men are now higher than they were a week ago.

Our recent state releases included Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Washington. Compared to the prior month, Bush improved relative to Kerry in eleven states. Kerry improved relative to Bush in ten states.