State-by-State Actual Results vs. Rasmussen Reports™ Polls

Thursday, December 02, 2004

The final, certified, results of Election 2004 show that President George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while Senator John Kerry earned 48.3%. Those figures are very close to the final Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll. We projected the President would win 50.2% to 48.5%.

This confirms Matthew Dowd's assessment that "Scott's polling data was dead on this election. Both nationally and at the state level, his numbers were hard to beat." Dowd was Chief Strategist for Bush-Cheney '04.

The table below shows Election Day results for each state compared to the final polling results we provided to Premium Members. During the final weekend, we provided polling data for 24 states and were 24 for 24.

		Actual	Final Rasmussen Poll
NATIONAL	Bush	50.7%	50.2%
NATIONAL	Kerry	48.3%	48.5%
Florida	Bush	52%	50%
Florida	Kerry	47%	47%
Pennsylvania	Bush	49%	47%
Pennsylvania	Kerry	51%	49%
Ohio	Bush	51%	50%
Ohio	Kerry	49%	46%
Michigan	Bush	48%	46%
Michigan	Kerry	51%	50%
Minnesota	Bush	48%	47%
Minnesota	Kerry	51%	48%
Wisconsin	Bush	49%	46%
Wisconsin	Kerry	50%	48%
Iowa	Bush	50%	48%
Iowa	Kerry	49%	48%
Nevada	Bush	50%	49%
Nevada	Kerry	48%	47%
New Mexico	Bush	50%	50%
New Mexico	Kerry	49%	46%
New Hampshire	Bush	49%	47%
New Hampshire	Kerry	50%	49%
California	Bush	44%	43%
California	Kerry	54%	53%
New York	Bush	40%	37%
New York	Kerry	58%	54%
Illinois	Bush	45%	43%
Illinois	Kerry	55%	51%
Georgia	Bush	58%	54%
Georgia	Kerry	41%	39%
New Jersey	Bush	46%	41%
New Jersey	Kerry	53%	53%
North Carolina	Bush	56%	53%
North Carolina	Kerry	44%	43%
Virginia	Bush	54%	50%
Virginia	Kerry	45%	45%
Missouri	Bush	53%	50%
Missouri	Kerry	46%	45%
Washington	Bush	46%	44%
Washington	Kerry	53%	53%
Maryland	Bush	43%	44%
Maryland	Kerry	56%	52%
Colorado	Bush	52%	50%
Colorado	Kerry	47%	45%
Alabama	Bush	63%	53%
Alabama	Kerry	37%	42%
South Carolina	Bush	58%	55%
South Carolina	Kerry	41%	41%
Oregon	Bush	48%	46%
Oregon	Kerry	51%	53%

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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