Republican prospects for retaining control of the United States Senate improved a bit over the past couple of weeks.

* In Oklahoma, Republican Tom Coburn has come from behind and now leads Democrat Brad Carson by five percentage points. We now consider this Senate seat in our "Leans Republican" category.

* In North Carolina, Republican Richard Burr has extended his slight lead over Democrat Erskine Bowles to four percentage points. While moving slightly in the Republican direction, the state is still in our Toss-Up category for the Senate.

* In Florida, Republican Mel Martinez has moved to within a point of Democrat Betty Castor.

Two factors appear to be benefiting the GOP. First, and most important, most of the contested Senate races are being fought in Republican friendly territory. Second, voters appear to be "coming home" on a partisan and ideological basis as Election Day approaches.

The best example of this is Oklahoma. The state will vote for President Bush over Senator Kerry by an overwhelming margin. However, in our earlier survey, only 62% of Bush voters planned to vote for the Republican Senate candidate Tom Coburn. Now, 75% of Bush voters say they will vote for Coburn.

Overall, it appears fairly certain that Democrats will pick up a Republican seat in Illinois and Republicans will return the favor in Georgia. With the exception of Alaska's Lisa Murkowski and South Dakota's Tom Daschle, all other incumbents are clear favorites in their bid for re-election. That gives Republicans a 48-44 advantage with 8 seats in play.

Two of those eight seats, (South Carolina and Oklahoma), now lean Republican. If the GOP takes those seats, they would have a 50-44 advantage and need to win just one of six Toss-Up states to retain majority party status in the Senate.

The six Toss-Up states are Alaska, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Louisiana, and South Dakota.

it awas the choice taking place inwill be decided in eight states this November--Alaska, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and South Dakota. South Dakota and Alaska are the only states in which an incumbent Senator is in serious danger of losing.

Alaska

Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is in trouble because of the way she got the job. Her father was elected Governor after serving in the Senate for decades. As Governor, he got to appoint his own replacement and named his daughter. Even worse, he did this after pretending to consider others. Democratic challenger and former Governor Tony Knowles holds a statistically insignificant lead in our latest poll and other public polls. The question is whether this will be enough in a state that will produce a landslide for President Bush.

Colorado

This is a Senate seat the Republicans counted on winning when the year began. Incumbent Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell would have easily been re-elected, but stepped aside for health reasons. The Democrats have nominated a popular Attorney General Ken Salazar and the Republicans countered with one of the most famous business leaders in the nation--Pete Coors. Our polls have found the two candidates within the margin of error.

Florida

Democrat Betty Castor has a one-point edge in our latest survey, but Republican Mel Martinez is certainly not out of the race. This seat has been a Toss-Up ever since the Democratic incumbent Bob Graham announced he was not going to seek re-election.

Louisiana

Louisiana has one Republican and three Democrats in the race. There is no doubt that Republican David Vitter will emerge with the most votes on Election Day. The question is whether or not he will win more than 50% of the vote. If he does, he'll be a Senator. If not, he'll have to face the leading Democrat in a run-off.

North Carolina

Over the summer, Democrat Erskine Bowles had a double-digit lead over Republican Congressman Richard Burr. That lead has now evaporated and our latest poll shows Burr ahead, 49% to 45%. If Burr wins, he will replace Democratic Vice Presidential nominee John Edwards in the Senate.

Oklahoma

It is amazing that Oklahoma is even competitive. President Bush will win an overwhelming victory in the state, perhaps by 25-30 percentage points. Former Republican Congressman Tom Coburn has had his difficulties but the heavy GOP advantage in the state may be enough to carry him over the top.

South Carolina

South Carolina is leaning towards Republican Jim DeMint, but the race is much closer than expected. Our last two polls found Democrat Inez Tenenbaum within six points of DeMint. The reason? Tenenbaum has hit DeMint hard on his support for a national sales tax to replace the income tax.

South Dakota

This is the heavyweight match of the year. South Dakota is a heavily Republican state, but Daschle has a long track record of electoral success and the benefits of incumbency.

Thune lost a very close election, just a few hundred votes statewide, two years ago to Senator Tim Johnson.

Both political parties have a plausible story line as to why they should win this Senate election in 2004. Democrats want to believe that Daschle is a stronger candidate than Johnson was and that should make a difference.

Republicans want to believe that Johnson won two years ago partly because voters wanted to keep their state's Senator as the Majority Leader in Washington. Now that Republicans have control of the Senate, Daschle's clout is not what it was in 2002.

While the South Dakota race is a Toss-Up, we currently show challenger John Thune with a 3-point lead over Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.

Rasmussen Reports is an independent public opinion research firm that provides daily updates on the Presidential election and the nation's economic confidence. We also update our Electoral College projections on a regular basis.