A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 92% of Americans say they are following news about the situation in Iraq either very closely or somewhat closely.

Forty-five percent (45%) of Americans say that, in the long run, our mission in Iraq will be considered a success. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree and say it will be considered a failure.

Perceptions about the situation in Iraq are among the strongest indicators of Presidential preference.

* Those who believe Iraq will be judged a success favor Bush by an 89% to 7% margin.

* Those who believe Iraq will be judged a failure prefer Kerry by an 83% to 9% margin. Among this group, 5% say they will vote for some other candidate.

This confirms other data suggesting that events in Iraq remain the most important factor of Election 2004.

Some commentators have suggested that the economy may be more important to voters. However, at this point in time, events in Iraq drive perceptions of the economy. Rasmussen Reports measures the economic confidence of Consumers and Investors on a daily basis. When there is bad news from Iraq, economic confidence tumbles. When there is good news from Iraq, confidence improves.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Americans say things are getting better in Iraq while 43% say they are getting worse. That's modestly better than data from August when 31% said better and 44% worse.

The survey also found that 46% believe it is somewhat or very likely that Iraq will become a "peaceful nation, enjoying the benefits of freedom and democracy." Fifty percent (50%) disagree, saying that such a positive outcome is not very likely or not at all likely.

Those numbers are little changed from two weeks ago, but modestly more optimistic than mid-summer data. In July, 42% took the optimistic view of Iraq's future while 54% held a pessimistic view.

Fifty-one percent (51%) are opposed to sending more troops to Iraq, even on a temporary basis. Thirty-five percent (35%) favor sending more troops if needed.

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