In Michigan, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush with 44% of the vote and Senator Kerry with 46%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry Michigan by a 51% to 46% margin.

Last month, it was Bush 47% Kerry 41% in our Michigan poll. However, our mid-month update for Premium Members found Kerry leading by a smaller margin, 46% to 42%. At that time, we moved Michigan from "Leans Kerry" to "Toss-up" category for our Electoral College projections (we require a five point lead before moving a state from Toss-Up status).

The Michigan survey highlights the importance of voter turnout (and the difficulties that pollsters have in estimating turnout). If the most casual voters in our sample do not vote, Kerry's two point advantage disappears. Bush leads among all other voters 45% to 44%.

In Michigan, 48% of all voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's up a single point from a month ago but still below his national Job Approval rating.

Data for Michigan will be updated again early next month. Our recent state releases included Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Washington.