The GOP establishment forcefully backed Republican Lincoln Chafee in the primary over a more conservative and arguably less-electable Republican. But, perhaps damaged by having to struggle so long for the nomination, it is not clear how electable Senator Chafee remains. The incumbent now lags his Democratic challenger 43% to 51% (see crosstabs).

This is the fourth Rasmussen Reports election poll in row showing former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse with the lead—and the lead is growing. Our last pre-primary poll found the challenger clinging to a narrow two-point lead. Before that, Whitehouse led by six. In July he was ahead by five.

Rasmussen Reports is now shifting the Rhode Island Senate race from ”Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power Summary. We are also shifting Ohio and Montana from ”Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.”

Now that the Republican primary is over, Chafee enjoys support from 74% of Republican voters. That’s up from 63% in the previous poll.

However, in a state with very few Republicans, those gains are more than offset by the gains by Whitehouse among Democrats. The challenger now has an 80% level of support from members of his own party, up from 62% in August. That may be the inadvertent result of the national Republican establishment’s visible support for Chafee.

The war in Iraq looms as the top issue for a plurality of 27%. Twenty-one percent of Rhode Island's likely voters (21%) cite the economy, 19% cite national security. Democrats often do best when the focus is Iraq in particular, Republicans when the focus is national security. But in this state, Democrats tend to be trusted more on both issues, though their advantage is greater on Iraq.

Whitehouse is now viewed very favorably by 30% of Rhode Island voters. Only 21% have such a positive view of Chafee.

Twenty percent (20%) of Rhode Island voters strongly approve of President Bush's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) strongly disapprove.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members.