In Tennessee's suspenseful U.S. Senate race, Republican Mayor Bob Corker now leads 48% to 47% (see crosstabs). With leaners added, Corker's edge widens slightly to 49% to 47%.

Our October 23 survey showed Corker with the same wispy advantage, then of 47% to 46%. With leaners, Corker had a two-point edge in that poll as well.

The race is a toss-up, but 50% think Corker will win, while only 38% think Ford will win; 12% aren't sure. As the media often note, if Ford wins, he'll be the first black Senator from the South since Reconstruction.

Through August, Corker led consistently. In July, the Republican enjoyed a twelve-point margin. But Ford scrambled ahead and built a five point lead in early October, spurring Corker to bring in a new campaign team. Then a recent RNC-funded ad criticizing Ford for attending a Playboy party sparked national attention and controversy for its alleged racism. Corker has disavowed the ad, which his campaign did not produce.

In late October, Congressman Ford criticized the New Jersey Supreme Court's recent controversial decision ordering the state legislature to provide for gay marriages or at least civil unions. Mayor Corker also criticized the decision. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Tennessee voters say the issue of same-sex marriage will have "very important" impact on their vote. And 49% trust Corker more than Ford (30%) on the issue.

More narrowly, Corker is also better trusted on Iraq and the economy.

Corker is viewed as conservative by 51% of the electorate, as moderate by 30%. Though Ford is often depicted as more moderate than the Corker campaign insists, only 36% accept that characterization; 47% says he's liberal.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.