With Election Day on the horizon Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee remains highly vulnerable. Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse leads the incumbent 50% to 42% (see crosstabs). In our last poll, conducted October 10, Whitehouse got the better of him 49% to 39%.

The race remains in the "Leans Democrat" column in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

With "leaners" added, Whitehouse now tops 50%, leading Chafee 52% to 44%. (Leaners are undecided voters willing to pick a candidate when asked a follow-up question.) Forty-two percent (42%) of all voters are certain they'll vote for Whitehouse, only 36% are firmly committed to Chafee.

Whitehouse has led every Rasmussen Reports survey since July.

Chafee's party-crossing high-wire act is being hit by a lot of wind gusts. It's a bad year for the GOP, and Rhode Island leans Democratic anyway. Compounding his problems, the Senator was obliged to endure a bruising primary battle before finally becoming the nominee in mid-September.

Many Republicans and conservatives think Chafee is too liberal; he wins only 74% of the GOP base and just 61% of conservatives. Many others think he's too Republican; moderates prefer Whitehouse 55% to 39%.

Even so, the incumbent remains fairly well liked as a person, with 60% viewing him favorably. However, just 25% have a "very favorable" opinion of the incumbent while 23% have a “very unfavorable” opinion.

Less than a third of Rhode Islanders (27%) now believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the war on terror. A plurality of 39% percent say the terrorists are winning. Nationally, only 31% believe we're winning, a number that was as high as 50% late last year. (See our War on Terror update)

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.