As November 7 looms, the reelection bid of Republican U.S. Senator Conrad Burns continues to stall. State Senate President and wheat farmer Jon Tester (D) now leads 49% to 42% (see crosstabs). That’s the same seven-point margin found in the Rasmussen Reports September 20 survey.

When “leaners” are added in to the totals, Tester leads by six, 50% to 44%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for one candidate or the other. However, when asked a follow-up question, they select a candidate.

Tester's support is more solid than Burns'. Ninety-one percent (91%) of Tester voters are "certain" they will vote for him. Among Burns' voters, just 81% are certain.

Montana’s Senate race remains in the “Leans Democrat” column for our Senate Balance of Power Summary.

In our late-September poll, Tester attracted 92% of Democrats; now he's got 96%. It is stunning that a three-term incumbent like Burns can’t find any support from across the partisan divide.

GOP support for Burns has also increased, but to only 82%. And Tester has an almost two-to-one advantage with unaffiliated voters, an even bigger lead with moderates.

Burns's biggest albatross is his connection with disgraced and indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, from whom he received more money than any other Senator. In the fall of 2005, before the Abramoff story broke, Burns had a double-digit lead. That lead disappeared entirely by January. Burns has also a victim of foot-in-mouth disease, which can be deadly on the campaign trail.

Unsurprisingly, political corruption is the election issue Montana voters most often cite as "very important": 76% do so, and another 16% say it is "somewhat important." The runner-up issue is national security, which 74% call very important. Only 61% rank the economy so high.

For some reason, Tester's flattop haircut has also figured in the campaign. It's been the focus of ads from both camps.

Tester is viewed “very favorably” by 28% of Montana voters and "very unfavorably" by 29%.

For Burns, the numbers are 19% “very favorable” and 39% “very unfavorable.”

Forty percent (40%) of voters Strongly Disapprove of the way that President Bush is doing his job.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.