There’s been yet another lead change in Missouri’s hotly contested Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports election survey shows Democrat Claire McCaskill leading incumbent U.S. Sen. Jim Talent 47% to 46% (see crosstabs). A week ago, it was Talent by two.

When leaners are added into the mix for the current poll, McCaskill still leads by a point, 48% to 47%.

The narrow margin between the two candidates holds when voters are asked about the certainty of their voting decisions. Forty-three percent (43%) of Missouri voters are “certain” they will vote for Talent. Forty-four percent (44%) say the same of McCaskill.

This is the eighth "lead" change recorded in this race. Realistically, it's too close to call. This is our fourth October poll in Missouri--three of the four have found the candidates within a point (and the other was within two). In October, each candidate has had a nominal lead twice.

In fifteen Missouri polls this season, McCaskill and Talent have been within three points of each other fourteen times--and within two points nine times.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Talent’s supporters say they will vote for him and slightly more than one-third (34%) will do so to vote against McCaskill. A majority of McCaskill’s supporters (56%) favor her as their next Senator, and 39% will cast a vote against Talent.

Talent ranks very favorably with 31% of voters and very unfavorably with 34%. For McCaskill, those scores are 25% and 32%, respectively.

The issue that has been as much a part of this campaign as the candidates themselves—stem cell research—is on Missouri voters’ minds as they prepare to head to the polls. Sixty-seven percent (67%) say the issue is “very important"—only 2% say the issue is “not at all important.”

Ninety-two percent (92%) of voters say they’ve heard of the campaign commercial featuring actor Michael J. Fox asking Missourians to support McCaskill because of her position on stem cell research. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters say they’ve heard of the response to Fox’s ad featuring former St. Louis Rams star Kurt Warner, and 31% say they have not.

When asked which candidate they trust more on the issue of stem cell research, Talent edges out McCaskill 47% to 41%. He’s also more trusted when it comes to the situation in Iraq (46% to 42%) and economic issues (46% to 44%.)

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