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Missouri Senate: McCaskill, Talent Neck-and-Neck
Talent (R) 43%; McCaskill (D) 42%
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Just days after Missouri's major candidates for U.S. Senate clashed on national television, a Rasmussen Reports poll of the race shows Republican Senator Jim Talent with a wafer-thin lead of 43% to 42% (see crosstabs). If undecided voters leaning toward a candidate are also counted, Talent leads 45% to 44%.

In our Senate Balance of Power summary, the Missouri race remains one of three toss-ups that could decide which party runs the Senate chamber next year.

The Foley scandal, the war in Iraq, the war on terror, and stem cell research were among the topics discussed during the recent "Meet the Press" debate.

The candidates took turns on the hot seat. Talent declined to say whether President Bush is a "great" President. McCaskill both defended and distanced herself from her statement that the President allowed New Orleans victims of Hurricane Katrina to die "because they were poor and because they were black."

Our September 12 survey showed McCaskill leading 45% to 42%.

That doesn't mean Talent gained ground thanks to the Russert-moderated face-off, however. The candidates have been closely matched in our polling since September of 2005, when they were tied 46% to 46%. Since March of this year, neither candidate has led by more than a few points at most.

McCaskill maintains a small edge with unaffiliated voters, a larger one with moderates. The candidates' favorables are comparable, though Talent is viewed "very favorably" by a few more (27%) than McCaskill (24%).

Most Missouri voters (77%) are following the story of the Foley scandal at least somewhat closely, 45% "very closely." A plurality (41%) think the GOP's handling of the matter is "poor." But 51% say the Democrats would have handled things about the same if Foley had been a Democrat.

Sixty-four percent (64%) say the crisis with North Korea is unrelated to the war on terror.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdgeâ„¢ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
October 12, 2006

Election 2006: Missouri Senate

Jim Talent (R)

43%

Claire McCaskill (D)

42%

Election 2006: Missouri Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average

Survey

Talent

McCaskill

Sep-Oct 3-

Oct 12

43%

44%

Aug-Sep-Oct

44%

44%

Jul-Aug-Sep

43%

45%

Jun-Jul-Aug

43%

44%

Mar-Apr-May

42%

42%

Apr-May-Jun

42%

41%

Mar-Apr-May

41%

42%

Feb-Mar-Apr

42%

42%

Jan-Feb-Mar

43%

43%

Nov-Jan-Feb

45%

45%

Sep-Nov-Jan

45%

46%

Election 2006: Missouri Senate

Date

Talent

McCaskill

Oct 12

43%

42%

Oct 3

43%

44%

Sep 12

42%

45%

Aug 15

46%

44%

Jul 20

42%

45%

Jun 27

42%

42%

May 8

43%

40%

Apr 4

41%

42%

Mar 6

40%

43%

Feb 8

41%

46%

Jan 2

46%

43%

Nov 9

47%

45%

Sep 1

46%

46%

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