After opening up a 10-point lead in early August, incumbent Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty finds himself down two points to Attorney General Mike Hatch in the latest Rasmussen Reports election survey. The current numbers show Hatch in the lead 44% to 42% (see crosstabs). Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson earns 9% of the vote.

When “leaners” are added to the total, Hatch’s lead increases a bit to 4 percentage points.

The gubernatorial race is shaping up to be the state’s race to watch with the U.S. Senate contest looking more and more like it’s Amy Klobuchar’s for the taking.

This race couldn’t be closer in terms of the candidates’ base support and crossover appeal. Hatch earns nods from 81% of Democrats and 11% of Republicans. Pawlenty is pulling support from 82% of his GOP base and 10% of Democrats.

When asked how confident they are of how their votes will be cast, 33% say they’re “certain” to vote for Pawlenty and an equal number say the same about Hatch.

Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters report “very favorable” opinions of Pawlenty and 20% have a “very unfavorable” opinion of their governor.

For Hatch, the numbers are 21% “very favorable” and 14% “very unfavorable.”

In a sure sign of a competitive race, voters are evenly split on Gov. Pawlenty’s performance in office thus far—51% approve and 49% disapprove.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Minnesota voters disapprove of President Bush’s job performance. This includes 48% who “strongly disapprove.”

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.