Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow now leads Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard 56% to 39% (see crosstabs), doubling the margin she enjoyed in our last poll.

In January, the Rasmussen Reports survey showed Senator Stabenow with a twenty-five-point advantage over prospective challengers, and in April she still led by twenty points. But by the time Bouchard had clinched the GOP nomination in early August, she was leading by only five.

Things have changed, and with only 4% now undecided, Bouchard's chances of foiling the incumbent's reelection bid are fading. In our Senate Balance of Power summary, we're moving Michigan from the "leans Democrat" to the "Democrat" category.

When we consider how many voters are sure of their candidate versus how many might switch, the news is also good for Senator Stabenow. Forty-six percent (46%) are certain they'll go with Stabenow on Election Day. Only 32% are certain of Bouchard. The challenger doesn't have much wiggle room.

Also, more than four fifths of Stabenow voters (81%) characterize their vote as "for Stabenow" rather than "against Bouchard." But only 62% of Bouchard voters say their vote is "for Bouchard."

Stabenow has higher overall favorables, and 29% view her "very favorably," versus 19% who view Bouchard so favorably. She is also viewed "very unfavorably" by 23%, versus 13% for Bouchard.

Sheriff Bouchard has been pushing for more debates, but it's unlikely that the incumbent will agree to them given her advantage.

The economy remains a top concern for many Michigan voters, with 79% saying that it's a "very important" issue, 18% that it's "somewhat important." National security, government corruption and domestic issues are often highly ranked as well.

Immigration and cultural issues are at least somewhat important to most voters here, but only about half say they're "very important."

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members Only.