For the third survey in a row, Republican Michael Steele finds himself trailing Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin by seven points in Maryland’s Senate race. The most recent Rasmussen Reports survey puts Cardin ahead 49% to 42% (see crosstabs). Cardin’s lead was 50% to 43% earlier in October.

When leaners are added into the mix, Cardin’s lead is cut to five points (50% to 45%). The race gets even closer when voters are asked about the certainty of their support. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Maryland voters are certain they’ll vote for Cardin while 36% say they’re certain to vote for Steele.

Still, the race remains in the “Leans Democrat” column for our Senate Balance of Power summary.

The candidates appeared on this week’s edition of “Meet the Press” where they debated stem cell research, abortion and the war in Iraq. When asked for his assessment of the war, Steele called it “a mess,” but faulted the Pentagon for poor strategy and planning rather than President Bush. Cardin’s campaign has spent considerable time and dollars portraying Steele as a protégé of the president.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Steele voters will cast their ballots as a vote of confidence in his candidacy and 12% will do so to vote against Cardin. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Cardin’s voters say they’ll vote for him because he’s their candidate of choice and 21% will use the opportunity to vote against Steele.

Although one-third of voters (33%) report very favorable opinions of Steele, he’s fighting an uphill battle of anti-Republican sentiment in a heavily Democratic state. When asked which party they would choose if their vote determined control of the U.S. Senate, 58% say they would vote Democrat and 35% would vote Republican. Sixty percent (60%) of unaffiliated voters favor Democrats in this instance.

Identical percentages of respondents say they trust Democrats (52%) over Republicans (39%) when it comes to handling the war in Iraq and managing the economy.

When it comes to Iraq, 61% rate the situation in that country as “poor.” Forty-one percent (41%) say the Iraq war is part of the overall War on Terror and 51% say it is a distraction.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.