In Montana, Senator Conrad Burns (R) has been mounting a furious comeback. While Jon Tester still has a slight edge in the race, the trend has been unmistakably in the GOP direction. After Labor Day, it was Jon Tester (D) by nine over Senator Conrad Burns (R). When October began, it was Tester by seven. Last Wednesday, it was Tester by four. Now, our final Montana poll shows Tester leading by just two points--50% to 48% (see crosstabs).

Ironically, Burns is one candidate who might be helped by the overall GOP weakness this year. If Montana voters have a simple choice between Jon Tester and Conrad Burns, Tester probably wins. However, while Montanans may be ready to fire Burns as their Senator, they're a bit more reluctant to have Democrats take over the Senate. Visits by President Bush and Vice President Cheney this week put that issue squarely before the voters by drawing more attention to the national implications of this race.

The President’s Job Approval rating in Montana is currently at 49%.

We are shifting this race from "Leans Democrat" to “Toss-Up” in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Burdened by scandal, Senator Burns has been struggling all year to stay afloat politically. With one exception, he has lagged in each of our last ten polls (in August, the race was a tie). The Senator received more money from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff than any other Congressman, and Tester and other Democrats in the state weren't about to let the electorate forget it.

The race bears some resemblance to New Jersey’s 2006 Senate competition. In both cases, the incumbent has been burdened by ethical challenges that made the race much more competitive than expected. Also, the same national forces helping Burns in Montana have helped Bob Menendez in New Jersey. In that state, of course, it’s voter preference for a Senate controlled by Democrats that helps the embattled incumbent. The major difference in these races is that Menendez was never in as much trouble as Burns, so he looks to be headed for re-election on Tuesday.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.