Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Senator Conrad Burns 50% to 43% making Burns the second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year (Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum is still the most vulnerable). This is the first Rasmussen Reports election poll in Montana since Tester won his primary victory to become the Democrat’s nominee.

In our May poll, before the primary, Tester had a 4-point advantage over Burns, 48% to 44%. A month earlier, Burns was ahead of Tester 47% to 44%. That trend may be even more troubling for the incumbent than the seven-point deficit in the current poll.

It is stunning for any long-term incumbent to be trailing in a re-election bid. It is even for a Republican to be trailing this badly in a state that President Bush carried by twenty points in Election 2004. But, even though most Americans think the Abramoff lobbying scandal was little more than business as usual, Burns close ties to the convicted lobbyists has clearly hurt Burns in Montana.

Tester is currently the President of the Montana State Senate. He handily defeated State Auditor John Morrison in the primary despite the fact that Morrison was the early frontrunner and raised more money. Morrison was the subject of allegations about an affair with the fiancé of a man his office was investigating. Tester touted himself as the only candidate who could cleanly challenge Burns on ethical issues.

Tester may have another advantage in that Governor Brian Schweitzer (D) remains extremely popular and currently enjoys a 73% Job Approval Rating in Montana. President Bush earns just a 49% Approval Rating despite winning 59% of the vote here in 2004. Just 30% Strongly Approve of the President’s performance while 39% Strongly Disapprove.

Despite these troubles, our survey in May found that Republicans are trusted more than Democrats in the state on the economy, national security, immigration, and Iraq. Democrats have the edge only on energy policy.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.