In an eye-catching rebound, Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty has overtaken DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch in his bid for reelection. Results of the latest Rasmussen Reports election survey of 500 likely Minnesota voters show the incumbent governor now leading Hatch 46% to 36% (see crosstabs). The previous survey at the end of June showed Hatch in the lead 47% to 42%. (The DFL, or Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, is Minnesota's equivalent of the Democratic Party.)

Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson earns support from 6% of those surveyed and 12% remain undecided. This is the first Rasmussen Reports Minnesota survey to include Hutchinson as an option.

The addition of Hutchinson to the poll may account for some of the slide in Hatch’s support. Eighteen percent (18%) of Democrats now say they will vote third party or are undecided. That’s up from 10% in the previous survey.

Also, opinion of Hatch has slipped a bit statewide. In our previous survey, Hatch was viewed “very favorably” by 20% of voters. That has slipped to 14% in the current survey. Thirteen percent (13%) have a “very unfavorable” opinion. Overall, the number with a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of Hatch has climbed five points in the past month to 38%.

Still, while Pawlenty’s standing in this poll represents a big improvement, he is far from secure. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. Pawlenty has not hit the 50% mark in any Rasmussen Reports election polls this year.

At the moment, 85% of Republicans say they will vote for Pawlenty. That’s up slightly from 81% in our previous survey and indicates the Governor has done a good job securing his base.

Hatch enjoys support from just 68% of Democrats at this time. History suggests it is likely that many Democrats who are now undecided or looking at a third party option will come home to the DFL candidate by election day. That will close the 10-point advantage currently held by the incumbent.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of Minnesota voters Strongly Approve of the way their Governor has performed his job while 22% Strongly Disapprove.

Twenty-three percent (23%) Strongly Approve of the job President Bush has been doing. Forty-six percent (46%) Strongly Disapprove.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.