Survey of 500 Likely Voters

November 2, 2005

November 4, 2005--Heading into the final weekend of Election 2005, Democrat Tim Kaine has a narrow lead over Republican Jerry Kilgore in the race to be Virginia's next Governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Kaine with 49% of the vote while Kilgore attracts 46%. This is the first time all year that either candidate has reached 49% in a Rasmussen Reports poll.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted November 2. The survey's margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. Demographic Details are available for Premium Members.

State Senator Russell Potts, a Republican running as an independent, currently earns just 2% of the statewide vote.

Last week, Kaine was ahead by just two percentage points, 46% to 44%. The candidates have been within three points of each other in six consecutive polls conducted since Labor Day.

This is the fourth straight 2005 Virginia election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for either major party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up question.

Without leaners, Tim Kaine has a one-point edge, 46% to 45%, over Jerry Kilgore.

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Kaine has clearly benefited from his relationship with current Governor, Mark Warner. Warner continues to hold a 72% Job Approval Rating in the current poll.

Voters are equally divided as to whether they trust Kaine or Kilgore more when it comes to managing the state's economy. Forty-six percent (46%) prefer Kilgore on taxes while 43% prefer Kaine.

Half of all voters (51%) say Kilgore is closer to their views on the Death Penalty. Thirty-three percent (33%) say Kaine holds an opinion closer to their own.

However, the Kilgore commercials on the death penalty may not have helped his campaign. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Likely Voters say they saw the commercial. Of those who did, 26% said it made them more likely to vote for Kilgore while 36% said they were more likely to vote for Kaine because of the ad.

Among those not affiliated with either major party, 15% say the ad made them more likely to support Kilgore. Thirty-three percent (33%) said it pushed them towards Kaine.

Kaine earns 89% of votes from Democrats and has a nine point advantage among unaffiliated voters. Kilgore earns 85% of the Republican votes.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters say they plan to vote for Kaine and are certain they will not change their mind. An identical number plan to vote for Kilgore and are certain they will not change their mind.

In six of the last eight Rasmussen Reports election polls in Virginia, Jerry Kilgore has attracted between 44% and 46% of the vote. One he was a point above that range, and once a point below.

In the last four Virginia election polls, Kaine has been in that same range (44% to 46%) every time. However, in the preceding four polls, he was in the 39% to 41% range.

Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by 53% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 42%. For Kaine, the numbers are 56% favorable and 42% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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